Bay ‘low’ delayed by a day, Arabian Sea quiet

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, April 8 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has delayed the outlook for formation of the first ‘low’ of the pre-monsoon season over south Bay of Bengal by one day to Sunday.
The precipitation activity over south peninsular India is forecast to rev up from Saturday onwards in anticipation of the ‘low.’
OVERNIGHT RAIN Varying amounts of overnight rainfall have already been reported from a few places in Telengana, Kerala and coastal Karnataka, an update by the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said on Wednesday.
Isolated rainfall occurred over interior Karnataka. Outlook for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places over south Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
In Tamil Nadu, the most likely places to come under rains are Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin, Kanyakumari, Madurai, Theni, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar and Dindugal districts. Isolated light to moderate rain is likely to occur over the rest of the State and Puducherry.
LESS STRIDENT International models are less strident in their outlook for an Equatorial Indian Ocean-based storm veering to the north-northwest and wheeling along the Kerala coast. But the adjoining land area would witness pulsating waves of rainfall, they said.
‘Phase evolution’ model from a leading forecaster still maintained the outlook for a ‘weather system’ tracking all the way up along the Kerala coast. Meteorologists are of the view that the fuming waters (of 31 degree Celsius and above) needed to be scanned closely for signs of storm development.
As for the Bay ‘low,’ models are of the view that heavy rains could lash north coastal Tamil Nadu (including Chennai) as the system moves west and parks itself along the coast for sometime.
UNSETTLED WEATHER The tongue of enhanced convection from the southeast (from west and adjoining south Sri Lanka) could gradually extend into southwest Bay of Bengal and coerce the ‘low’ to fall in line before being driven north-east into Andamans and Myanmar.
Thunderstorms and squalls marked the disturbed weather in Northwest and North-East India on Wednesday and more of the same have been forecast for the next day or two as well.
A warning issued by the IMD spoke about the possibility of thunder squalls and hail at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
Isolated thunder squall is likely over the North-East States during the next two days. A causative trough from Gangetic West Bengal to Telangana on Wednesday ran down from Orissa to coastal Karnataka through Chhattisgarh, Telangana and south Madhya Maharashtra. Isolated thundershowers are likely over Karnataka and Telengana.
THUNDERSHOWERS In Northwest India, rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarkhand and west Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours and isolated thereafter.
Isolated thunderstorms have been warned of in Rajasthan during the next 24 hours but mainly dry weather thereafter. Isolated rain or thunderstorm is likely over the rest of Northwest India.
To the east, isolated thundershowers are likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand during the next two days. Rain or thundershowers are also likely at many places over the North-East.