Wheat-growing areas likely to get rainfall

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 16 A weather-maker western disturbance has started impacting northwest India with Jammu and Kashmir, west Rajasthan and Punjab receiving widespread to scattered rains or snow on Friday.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of isolated heavy snowfall for Jammu and Kashmir on Saturday.

International models suggested that a ‘blob’ of rain may be building over northwest Kashmir while satellite pictures revealed gathering clouds crowning ‘Head’ Jammu and Kashmir and its western flanks.

EMBEDDED TROUGH The westerly system with an embedded trough had induced a secondary cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan on Thursday.

The circulation had moved east-northeast to west Rajasthan, where it was traced on Friday.
Another circulation has been persisting over Punjab, too.

These systems are forecast to move east-northeast with the parent and gradually cease to influence northwest Indian weather.

The fairly widespread precipitation over the western Himalayan region would continue through the weekend, the IMD said. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershower is likely over the plains of northwest India — mainly Punjab, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Isolated rain or thundershowers is likely over Haryana and Chandigarh during the next 24 hours and at a few places thereafter.

The Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre predicted that the westerly wind regime would hold strong in the mid- and high-levels of the atmosphere over much of the country during the next week.

There could be another westerly trough approaching the country during this period, these predictions suggested.

It would have the depth to sweep moisture from the Arabian Sea and transport it to western and northwest India.

But its arrival and propagation would need to be closely monitored for detailed analysis, according to Met experts here.

In the south, however, easterlies would hold sway over the Bay of Bengal for the most part.

Meanwhile, the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia has come out with its latest seasonal forecast suggesting slightly above-normal rain for the southern Indian peninsula during February-March-April.

While the IRI doesn’t signal any major rainfall deficit for north and northwest India, the temperature values for contiguous central and east India are projected to be above normal during the period. But there is a building rainfall regime to the south over the peninsula that extends to Sri Lanka as well.