Bangladesh’s India ‘Problem’ and Mashrafe-Juhi-Pranab update

I called up a relative today and her first response on political matters highlighted the discussion of the hour. Referring to the much discussed transit deal, she said: ‘As predicted our country is getting sold to India’.   This is an often used  rhetoric that is well past its expiry date.  However, this still merits a responsible response. Translation: Bangladesh’s India strategy deserves a strong discussion not just in the policy circle but among the general populace as well.   Whatever position this government is taking concerning India, they need to do a far better job in convincing the public that it is for their best interst.  It has to go beyond producing the text of old treaties. It needs to communicate more effectively by showing numbers, the benefits, the threats and treat us like adults and show real dinbodol (change) in terms of transparency.

Before we get into what the future holds, let’s look at what the average Bangladeshis think of India?  

Here is Tahmima Anam’s take on what Bangladeshis think of India

..on the eve of independence, it seemed the road was gilded for a great love-affair between Bangladesh and India. This romance was even adumbrated by our geography: India surrounds Bangladesh on three sides, a great bear-hug of a border. But in the decades since Bangladesh’s independence, the affair has gone sour.
..
There is yet to be an implemented economic treaty that would allow our products to cross the border into India without heavy tariffs.  This trade imbalance only serves to reinforce the feeling that we live in the shadow of a bully. 

Farakka ravaged and soured the feelings of an entire generation in Bangladesh on India.  While India played the mean spirited big brother, the military generals found an effective, political card in bashing India.  In the nineties, it was the Babri Mosque riot and in 2002, it was the Gujarat riot that gave a glimpse to us of the state of minority Muslims in India.   The net result:  A feeling of distrust among the Bangladeshis about India.  ”India likes to bully its neighboring countries”, “India kills our innoncent villagers in the borders”, “India blames Bangladesh for terrorism at every opportunity it gets”.  ”India tries to interfere in our politics at every opportunity it gets”.  Now that India wants transit through our country, what are they REALLY up to?  Surely, they would just look into their interest.  That’s what happens in any negotiation.  But the question is can Bangladesh stand her ground in the negotiating table to protect its own interest?  Before her government can do that, they need to  create a comprehesive strategy surrounding bergaining with India.
So the big question is if 2009 going to be a new era for a fairer India-Bangladesh relation?  IHT chimes in calling India’s new found status as an upcoming super power as element that will make them behave.

At the broadest level, there is a growing recognition in India’s leadership that a rising India needs to foster cooperation with its neighbors, and not to view their weaknesses as its advantage.
In the long run, India’s relationship with its eastern neighbor of 150 million people may become as important as the relationship with Pakistan, not least because Bangladesh is crucial to resolving the isolation and insurgencies in India’s seven North-East states.
More immediately, if India cannot have cooperative relations with a moderate, secular and democratic Muslim country with which it has no insoluble conflicts of interest, it has scant hope for coexistence with Pakistan or wider cooperation in a South Asia notorious for its lack of economic integration.
Given its growing global stature, India should seek to be a benign rather than overbearing regional leader, especially since security infections can spread from unstable and unhappy neighbors into India.

Given that India will want to portray itself as a benign neighbour, why should Bangladesh have a solid economic strategy for India?  Ifty Islam, former Macro Economic strategist at the CitiBank and the current head of AT Capital, thinks people in Bangladesh need to start looking at India as an opportunity and not a threat.

At the beginning of October 2008, I participated in an Indian Private Equity seminar in Mumbai. I was surprised at the lack of awareness of recent trends in the Bangladesh economy among many of the 300 attendees I had a chance to speak to. Many were focused on “Incredible India” companies buying up assets in Europe and the US. Bangladesh appeared an after-thought.
However, attitudes are changing and I was pleasantly surprised to receive a call from a journalist from Forbes India last week. They are launching their inaugural issue in March and want to feature an article on India-Bangladesh economic relations. 

 Ifty Islam’s piece is worth a read and merits further discussion.  His key points for the India strategy is three folds.
1.  Look at India as a potential FDI resource as FDI from the West dries up
2.  Set up Bangladesh as a revenue generating regional transport hub through transit and deep sea port
3.  Just as Vietnam has positioned itself as China+1, position Bangladesh as India+1 ( alternative manufacturing hub for global companies and investors who already have over-reliance on India)
In a post credit crunch battered global economy, every one is going back to the drawing board.  Bangladesh is no exception either.  Surely time has come now to proactively and aggressively manage the relationship to our benefit with the big guy round the corner.  While Awami League is using its recently earned political capital on this political risky deal, it needs to extract a heavier concession from India and convince the public that it is in our best economic interest.  It also needs to take into account that it is dealing with an almost lame duck government.  By all indications, BJP is likely to come back to power in the centre in two months.  If history is any guide, a BJP government will continuously try to shore up its base by allienting its Muslim majority neighboring countries.   Would it have been not wise to wait until the new government had taken power so that we had better control in the negotiating table?  What if BJP does not honour the committment made by the Congress government?  In its first 100 days of power, when the government is expected to pass bills on its campaign promises, why is AL focusing on issues that got little/if any focus during the campaigns?
Lots to think about.  But in the next few days, as Pronob Dada visits Bangladesh, this issue is surely going to dominate the airwaves.  Pitch in your thoughts.  Is it time to revise our India strategy?  If so, how?
As I wrap up this piece, I find the news of Mashrafee being roped into the Indian Premier League at an astonishing amount of 600 thousand dollars.  Now that’s an FDI we can all believe in!  But hear what Juhi has Chawla has to say about this most overpriced purchase of the year.