By Denis D. Gray
Reforming Myanmar’s harsh military rule may not rank at the top of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy goals, but it’s one he will find among the most difficult to achieve.
For half a century, formidable forces rebel armies, uprisings, economic sanctions, pressure by the United Nations have attempted to dislodge or at least temper Myanmar’s ruling junta. All have failed.
The generals of Myanmar, also known as Burma, continue to crush popular protests with guns, commit atrocities against ethnic minorities and currently hold more than 2,000 political prisoners, including pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who has been under house arrest for more than 13 of the past 19 years.
So can any new approach by Obama effect meaningful change in Myanmar?
Options in his arsenal appear limited, but some will be tried, and they could prove important.
“If there is going to be any change in international policy which will make a difference, it’s going to have to come from Washington. The U.S. remains a key player,” says Thant Myint-U, a Burmese historian and former U.N. official. “For the Burmese government, the U.S. holds out what they want, which is international acceptability and respect, and an end to its pariah status.”
A prominent Southeast Asian politician agreed.
“Obama could be a pivotal leader (on the issue) because of his high concern for democracy and human rights,” Philippine Senator and former Senate President Aquilino Pimentel told the Associated Press.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, on her recent Asian swing, indicated Washington was “looking at what steps we might take that might influence the current Burmese government and we’re also looking for ways that we could more effectively help the Burmese people.”
Analysts foresee more carefully crafted U.S. sanctions, greater cooperation with the United Nations and others to forge a common front on Myanmar, and trying to convince China to exert influence on its close ally. But employing a carrot and a stick, humanitarian aid may also be increased.
“Obama’s approach to foreign policy, a stress on common action among allies and negotiation, will be more effective than Bush’s unilateralism and moralistic hectoring,” says Donald M. Seekins, a Myanmar expert at Japan’s Meio University.
Obama’s new U.N. Ambassador Susan E. Rice has said there remained “scope for greater regional and international action to pressure Burma’s dictators,” including multilateral sanctions and getting Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbors to support tougher action.
But she warned Myanmar may represent “one of the most intractable challenges for the global community.”
In a country where many still regard the United States as a potential savior, there is skepticism that the new president can loosen the junta’s grip on power but also some hope.
Myanmar, under the military’s grip since 1962, may be one of the few countries where many say they would welcome an invasion by the United States or at least a bombing of the junta’s remote, bunker-like capital of Naypyitaw.
Although censors banned the publication of Obama’s inauguration speech, many managed access and interpreted his remarks about the world’s dictators as an open message to Myanmar’s generals.
“President Obama was referring to Myanmar. He is willing to help the Myanmar government if they are ready to accept American assistance, but also gave a strong signal that America will not tolerate corrupt regimes,” said lawyer Maung Maung Gyi, citing Obama’s warning to those “who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent,” and Washington’s readiness to assist those who would “unclench your fist.”
has come out in support of sanctions against the junta, and during the presidential campaign likened Suu Kyi to the late American civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. The sanctions, which have strong bipartisan backing, include a post-1997 ban on all U.S. investments in Myanmar and the freezing of U.S. assets of junta leaders.
In the past, Washington has also tried to exert some pressure through the United Nations and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which includes Myanmar. But China, Russia and India all with economic or strategic interests in Myanmar have blocked such moves while ASEAN’s policy of noninterference has hindered reform in Myanmar.
The annual summit of ASEAN leaders, hosted by Thailand later this week, is almost certainly to be another case of what the Burmese jokingly call “NATO” No Action, Talk Only on the Myanmar issue.
But some Southeast Asian figures are pressing for both more ASEAN as well as U.S. action on Myanmar.
“ASEAN has to flex its muscle more. ASEAN should be in the forefront of the struggle for human rights in Myanmar but probably the European Union and the United States can impose some measures that will compel Myanmar’s military rulers to address the plight of its people,” Pimentel said in Manila.
This history caused Clinton to lament: “It is an unfortunate fact that Burma seems impervious to influences from anyone. The path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn’t influenced the Burmese junta, but … reaching out and trying to engage them has not influenced them either.”
Washington currently applies political and economic sanctions against Myanmar because of its poor human rights record and failure to hand over power to a democratically elected government.
Thant Myint-U of Singapore’s Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, said the sanctions would make sense “if the U.S. was willing to make Burma it’s No. 1 priority and use all its leverage with China and India to make them global and that’s not going to happen.”
Washington instead should move ahead with direct talks and real engagement in an effort to influence the next generation of military leaders, he said, because they hold the key to change.
UPSC IAS Coaching Centre in Aizawl Mizoram
Pre-liminary briefing on coaching for Civil Service aspirants was held in Aizawl today by the resource persons of Lord Krishna IAS Academy, New Delhi.
The Academy is to open the Coaching Institute in Aizawl College in collaboration with Mizoram Youth Commission.
The training course will also include Coaching on Combined Defence Services, Bank Probationary Officers and other examinations under Staff Selection Commission. Welcoming the Coaching, Students Self Support Union (SSU) praised Mizoram Youth Commission for inviting Lord Krishna IAS Academy, New Delhi to set up the Coaching Institute in Aizawl.
The Academy is to open the Coaching Institute in Aizawl College in collaboration with Mizoram Youth Commission.
The training course will also include Coaching on Combined Defence Services, Bank Probationary Officers and other examinations under Staff Selection Commission. Welcoming the Coaching, Students Self Support Union (SSU) praised Mizoram Youth Commission for inviting Lord Krishna IAS Academy, New Delhi to set up the Coaching Institute in Aizawl.
Cyclonic whirl to spearhead weather over Northeast
Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, Feb 26 : India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the presence of a cyclonic circulation embedded into a trough as northwesterlies dipped into east and north-east India.
These atmospheric features will combine to preside over the unsettled weather that is forecast to evolve in the region over the next four to five days.
The trough should have normally showed up upstream over the northwest, but has presumably been thwarted by a ‘weather guard’ system in transition to being contra-indicative in that region.
YIELDING PLACE A reigning semi-permanent trough (low pressure) is in the process of yielding the seasonal perch to a semi-permanent ridge (high pressure).
This would mean that the prevailing hesitant rain/snow regime over the hills of northwest India would change over to being colder and drier climes.
The evolving ridge will force part of the northwesterly winds to divert from their usual path and bypass Jammu and Kashmir before being made to dip as a trough over east and north-east India.
The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting is of the view that the trough would hold strong until Sunday before weakening a bit. But strong northwesterly winds would continue to prevail over the Indo-Gangetic farther ahead.
WESTERLY SYSTEM According to the IMD, the trough in transition across the northwest border would still be able to engineer the passage of a weak western disturbance into the western Himalayas (Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining region) around March 2.
This would rule out any noticeable downward trend in the mercury levels in the northwest from the weekend as was inferred earlier. The minimum temperatures are above normal by 4 to 6 degree Celsius over west and adjoining central and east India.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are expected over parts of the North-East States during the next four to five days.
In the South, a trough of low pressure over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal persisted on Wednesday. A cyclonic circulation lay over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services sees convection activity picking over equatorial Indian Ocean just south of Sri Lanka during the first week of March.
Meteorologists are watching if this could ‘excite’ a part of the Pacific convergence zone to the north to swing it over Sri Lanka and extreme south peninsular India and bring some welcome wet weather into the region.
Quiet Revolution in Bangladesh : Security Concerns for India
By Maloy Krishna Dhar
Bangladesh election held under supervision of the interim government and the army has initiated the process of a fresh freedom struggle. Democracy with secular principles was wiped out with the blood of Mujibur Rahman, his family and colleagues. Intermittent democratic experimentation with bouts of army rule had not only severely mutilated the spirit of the freedom struggle and Bengali cultural nationalism. This very foundation of the nation was massacred by the Mujib killers and subsequent pro-Pak Generals and Jamait-e-Islami. There is no doubt that the junior officers who staged the brutal coup in 1975 were simply not inspired by ‘misrule of the Awami League and the BAKSAL’; they were inspirited by Pakistan and certain clandestine operators of the CIA.
Later, General Zia-ur-Rahman, after his visit to Pakistan in September 1977, and hostile ambience created by Army-insiders and the regerminated Jammait-e-Islami opted for Islamisation, allowed the Jamait-e-Islami chief to return to Bangladesh. The Jamait had collaborated with Pakistan army and had committed innumerable atrocities on Hindu and Muslim supporters of the six point autonomy movement that turned to freedom struggle. The same year he initiated the process of creating the DGFI, in the model of the ISI. Between Zia and Ershad the BNP emerged as the party of the ‘real creator of Bangladesh-Zia-ur-Rahman.’ Short of conferring upon the General the honorific of Father of the Nation, the Begum did everything to augment the process of Islamisation and offering space to the resurgent religious congregations and the jihadis, which were seeded by General Zia, nurtured by General Ershad and given political recognition by the BNP.
General Zia’s cooperation with Pakistan and the USA in recruiting mujahids from Bangladesh (15000 odd) and sending to Pakistan for training and taking part in Afghan jihad had suddenly pushed Bangladesh to the path of radical Islamisation. The democratic process was suppressed; huge Ummah and Pakistani funds were allowed to pour in for encouraging the Bengali Muslims to spread the message of jihad in every nook and corner of Bangladesh. The Jamait-e-Islami, Islamic Chhatra Shibir, Ahle-e-Hadith Movement Bangladesh, Allhar Dal, Hizbut Tehrir and HUJI etc organizations (about 30) rooted in public mind with government support. Innumerable mosques and madrasas were constructed and the message of Jihad was spread with impunity. The same trend continued during General Ershad’s tenure.
hat was the period when Indian ethnic insurgent groups were manipulated by Bangladesh and Pakistani forces (the ISI and the DGFI) and secured sanctuaries were created for them with training and arming facilities. The political tussles between Awami League, BNP of Zia-ur-Rahman, Jatiyo Party of Ershad and Jamait-e-Islami created continued ambience of uncertainty, growth of Islamic militancy and internal chaos. Corruption in public life plagued Bangladesh heavily. The 1996 election in which Hasina Wazed’s Awami League and JeI combination returned to power witnessed near-total polarization between the political forces. Policy of political negativism adopted by all the political parties, increase of jihadi activities and greater involvement of Bangladesh and Pakistan in the ethnic insurgencies in India generated serious security implications for India. This was the period when Naga, Tripura, Assam and Bodo militants were given free access, training and supplied with arms both by the DGFI and the ISI. This period coincided with increased bonds between Pakistan based jihadi tanzeems and Bangladeshi jihadi tanzeems like HUJI, JMB, Bangla Bhai, Hijbut Tehrir, Islamic Chhatra Shibir and units of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hijbul Mujahideen and al Qaeda were found greater acceptability amongst the radicalized Muslims. It seemed that political negativism, manipulation by the DGFI and army, Pakistani influence and free flow of Ummah funds had put Bangladesh on the same footing as Pakistan developed after the Afghan jihad. Return of about 10 thousand Bangladeshi Afghan veterans, increased al Qaeda support and blatant interference by the ISI created internal turmoil with higher degree of violence and use of Bangladesh as a launching pad of operations against India in Assam and elsewhere. Several training camps were started for training malcontent Indian Muslims and the northeastern insurgent groups. Bangladesh became a highway for the jihadis and insurgents.
BNP’s bonhomie with the Jamait, other jihadi tanzeems like HUJI, Bangla Bhai, JMB etc received tremendous boost after 2001 general elections to the Jatiyo Sangsad, The table of results of 2001 Sansad election indicate the level of increase of influence of the BNP, Jamait and allied parties and erosion of pro-India forces:
BNP - 193: 41.40%
Awami League + 62: 40.02%
Jatiya Party (E) 14: 7.22 %
JeI BD 17: 4.28.
Other parties not mentioned.
The BNP and Jamait coalition with intermittent support from Ershad’s Jatiya Party did not succeed in giving a stable government. The Jamait-e-Islami took advantage of its presence in the government and systematically infiltrated the armed forces, intelligence, police and other vital government department giving fillip to pro-Pakistani and pro-jihadi forces. Politics of negativism, corruption by two sons of the PM, all pervasive siphoning of public wealth by politicians and bureaucrats was compounded by visible increase in jihadi violence inside Bangladesh. Between 2001 and 2006 more than 500 incidents of terrorist violence took place including 49 serial bomb blasts in a single day, attempt on the life of the British High Commissioner and Sheikh Hasina, by forces of HUJI, JMB and Bangla Bhai. The JMB, Ahl-e-Hadith and the Bangla Bhai were used by ruling factions to punish the Awami League, other dissenters and the minorities.
There was furour, violence and political impasse over appointment of the Caretaker Government which finally led to the distinctly visible indirect interference by the army and installation of a non-political Interim Government. The army chief wielded nearly supreme power with a view to restore some semblances of order, restoration of peace, and assurance in public mind that the new government meant business. Anti-corruption drive witnessed prolonged incineration of Begum Zia, her sons and Sheikh Hasina.
That the army chief was not insensitive to the ideals of foredoom struggle, and believed in restoration of democracy and some sanity in public life was proved by acts of banning of certain jihadi organizations, meting out death sentence on Bangla Bhai and JMB leaders and restriction of Hizbut Tehrir, Allahar Dal etc subversive organizations. Combination of various internal and international factors compelled the army chief to opt for elections in December 2008. General Moeen has not shown any personal hunger for power. The results were stunning:
Awami League + 230 : 49.0%
BNP + 30 : 33.2%
Jatiya Party (E) 16 : 07.0 %
JeI 2 : 04.6 %
The BNP and the Jamait fared well in Chattagram area, with significant performance in Noakhali, Khulna, Comilla. Pabna and Bogra. The Awami League swept almost in all the districts with Jatiya Party dominating areas of North Bangladesh, the usual stronghold of Ershad.
A study of the parties contesting the elections throws out interesting aspects both for Bangladesh and India:
Party : Number of candidates
Islamic Front Bangladesh (Pakistan funded) : 2
Islamic Movement Bangladesh (HUJI) : 266
Islami Oikya Jote (Al Qaeda Affiliate) : 4
United Citizens Movement : 11
Krishak Shramik Janata League : 46
Democratic Party : 5
People’s Front (Pro-JMB) : 14
Gano Forum : 45
Jamaat-e-Ulama Islam Bangladesh : 7
Zaker Party (Pro-Taliban) : 37
National Democratic Party (Ahl-e Hadith faction) : 2
Jatiya Party : 46
Jatiya Party-JP : 7
Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasad : 6
Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-JSD: 44
National People’s Party (Allhar Dal) : 29
Progressive Democratic Party : 21
Freedom Party (Pro Taliban) : 2
Bangladesh Awami League : 259
Bangladesh Islamic Front (Pro-al Qaeda) : 18
Bangladesh Kalayan Party : 39
Bangladesh Khilafat Andolan (Pro Pak) : 32
Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis (pro-Pak) : 8
Bangladesh Jatiya Party : 10
Bangladesh Jatiya Party-BJP : 2
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (Pro Pak) : 256
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (Pro-Pak) : 39
Bangladesh Tarikat Federation (Pr-Hizbut Tehrir) : 31
Bangladesh National Awami Party : 14
Bangladesh National Awami Party-Bangladesh NAP : 5
Bangladesh Muslim League (Pro-Pak) : 5
Bangladesher Samajtantrik Dal : 57
Workers Party of Bangladesh : 5
Communist Party of Bangladesh : 38
Revolutionary Workers Party of Bangladesh : 5
Bangladesher Samayabadi Dal (ML) : 1
Bikalapdhara Bangladesh (Pro-Moscow) : 62
Liberal Democratic Party : 18
Independent (45 belonging to JMB) : 141
Total:1538
This would show that the HUJI after failing to register itself as a political party contested in the name of Islamic Movement Bangladesh. Almost all the jihadi parties fielded good number of candidates but failed to secure more than 02.01 % of votes. However the HUJI affiliated party managed to get nearly 3 % votes. One of the candidates was elected to Jatiyao Sangsad as independent.
Various analysts have offered scores of reasons for the stunning success of Awami League combination. Most cogent reasons have been offered are:
1.Awami League and BNP are nearly at par with their number of supporters. Awami league’s regular supporters did vote for Awami League as usual and they had no reason to love BNP - so Awami League grabbed the regular devoted votes. The BNP voters were disunited and wilted under army pressure.
2. The Swing Voters wanted to teach BNP a lesson for their corruption and had no other alternative than accepting the Mohajot as voting for BNP would have justified stinking corruption by two sons of Begum Zia and her colleagues.
3. The BNP supporters or activists were divided as to pro-change and anti-change groups; the dissenters like Bodrudouza and Mohammad Oli gave reasons to the anti-BNP lobbies reasons to ponder upon BNP’s lack of coordination and disciplined approach.
4. BNP stalwarts or the pivotal leaders were kept behind the bars until the last few days while Awami League had almost all their pivotal figures out of jail all the time.
5. Awami League had always supported the caretaker Government and had promised to legalise their unconstitutional works if voted to power. It has been insinuated that General Moeen is a pro-Mujib person and he was influenced by India and the US to favour a more democratic group.
6. Hasina had a few anti-Jamiat Islamic groups in her pocket which got the votes of anti-Jamait pro-Islamic people on their side and Hasian promised not to enact any anti-Islamic laws.
7. Ershad commands a few BNP votes and has comfortable support in northern districts.
8. New generation of voters did not have the experience of seeing Awami League’s rule as adults; rather they saw the corrupt rule of Zia which made them anti-BNP. They were not aware that Awami League always failed to control crime and had displayed ‘winner takes all’ attitude since 1971.
9. Awami League is better in price control.BNP is not good at that and owing to present price hike people could not afford to take chances with any more price hike as that would have meant playing with starvation. BNP has the bad reputation of collaboration with corrupt market manipulators.
10. Women voters were successfully convinced that BNP meant oppression on women and it encourage the Islamists. BNP regime had allowed near total control of the civil society by al Qaeda, Taliban and Pakistani elements. People had become weary of jihadi violence and growing rhetoric on Islamisation of the society.
11. Bangladesh is surrounded by Maoists and Communists and Islam was projected as an oppressive force by JMB and HUJI etc as a threat to generally democratic Bengali society. Communism and Socialism dominated the media who supported Awami League.
12. Awami League banked on the issue of bringing the Jamiat leaders to war-tribunals when BNP owing to failure of its leaders could not successfully defend the issue with a counter challenge. Moreover, the BNP was perceived as a force protecting the killers of Mujib and other Awami League leaders.
13. Hasina lobbied abroad to win international support for Awami League when BNP concentrated on domestic support only. Zia was busy begging for release of her sons and was encumbered with revelations that her sons had stacked away billions in foreign banks by robbing the common people.
14. Finally, it must be added that by purging of the DGFI and some segments of the army brass closer to the Jamait and BNP General Moeen had good ambience to ensure a smooth election, though there are allegations that Gen Moeen had favoured the Awami League combination. Certain quarters in Dhaka believe that the army chief was afraid of a coup against him by the pro-Jamait and pro-BNP Generals.
No analysis can explain the stunning victory of Obama and Hasina. The people of Bangladesh have opted for a change and it is time for Hasina to deliver.
The goodness of the cake can only be proved by eating it. Her crown is full of thorns. She has excluded several veterans from ministerial berths. They wield influence in their own pocket-Burroughs. They are watchful of the internal groupings and may not hesitate to gang up with destabilizing forces. Begum Zia is most likely to again take the parliamentary politics to the streets and adopt the old policy of ‘either I or none.” Though her vote percentage has reduced she has maintained the steady grassroots elements on her side and her core vote percentage has not diminished. Tactically she is distancing her party from the Jamait for a while but once the opposition to the war-criminal trials involving the Jamait leaders starts Zia’s forces is likely to rally behind them along with the jihadi organizations. Hasina has a poor record of controlling law and order and often buckles down under pressure of the Islamic forces.
All the senior army officers are not with General Moeen. Several pro-BNP and pro-Jamait military top brass are watching the developments. Once Hasina and party tries to prosecute some of the former army officers for war crimes they are likely to rebel and topple her. They have a better friend in Begum Zia. Hasina would require purging the DGFI and the administration of pro-Jamait elements with helps from friendly army Generals. General Moeen may agree to help her for some costs; indirect army presence in the administration. Hopefully Hasina and allies would accommodate them for better stability and longer survival.
As far as India is concerned the situation appears to be favourable. “With terrorism in the region a pressing concern, especially after the Mumbai attacks, Hasina’s victory will bring some comfort to New Delhi as she took tough steps against the anti-India militant groups when she was in power in the mid-1990s. In contrast, there was a sharp spike in militancy and Islamic fundamentalism during Zia’s tenure.” (Times of India December 30, 2008).
What are the ground realities?
Bangladesh reeks with Islamist and jihadi organizations numbering nearly 40. The main groups are: Jamait-e-Islami, Islamic Chhatra Shibir, Islami Oikya Jote, HUJI, JMB, Jagrato Muslim Janata, Sahadat-e-Alam-al-Hiqma, Ahl-e-Hadith, Hizbut Tawhid, Hizbut Tehrir, Allahar Dal, Islamic Jubo Sangha, Al-Falah A’am Unnayan Sangstha, Islami Biplobi Parishad, Biswa Islami Front, Al Jamaitul Islamiya, Al Khidmat Bahini, Al Mujahid, Al Harqat-al-Islamia, Al Mahfuz-al-Islami, Joish-e-Mustafa (affiliated to Jais-e-Mohammad of Pakistan), Muslim Guerrilla Bahini etc.
These organistaions are spread all over Bangladesh. Most of the rural areas are influenced by them and they receive liberal funding from Arabian countries and other NGOs.
The Interim Government had banned Ahl-e-Hadith, HUJI and Hizbut Tehrir. The JMB came under heavy hammers and three of its top leaders were sentenced to death. But, like Pakistan, the jihadi organizations keep on changing names and function with impunity at the grassroots level. This, however, should not give an impression that Bangladesh is a Taliban country like Pakistan. The conflict situation between pro-Pakistani forces, believers in democracy and secularism and Bengali cultural nationalists is palpably perceptible. After General Zia’s collaboration with the USA and Pakistan during Afghan jihad and return of over 7000 Bengali Afghan veterans, infiltration by al Qaeda and Taliban had changed the social and political ambience in Bangladesh. By allowing rerooting of the Jamait and by converting the country to Islamic principles Zia had helped creation of a force that thrived on Arab money, jihadi ideology and religious resurgence and fundamentalism.
By encouraging anti-India and anti-Hindu sentiments Zia, Ershad and Begum Zia had given direct and indirect support to the Islamicised jihadi forces. Between 1991 and 2000 Bangladesh created safe niche for the jihadis and forces antagonistic to India.
Pakistan’s policy of encouraging, sheltering and arming the Indian rebel groups was pursued by Zia-created DGFI, BDR and the jihadi elements that came to root in the country. Faded secular elements and cultural Bengali nationalists were pushed aside and hate-India sentiments were generated by Bangladeshi and Pakistani elements operating in political parties, bureaucracy, armed forces and segments of people Islamicised drastically. The former Muslim League elements who had taken shelter under other parties activated their anti-minority and anti-India campaign. Pakistan and China encouraged these developments.
Besides the Jamait, Ahl-e-Hadith and Tablighi Jammat which have garlanding presence in India and Pakistan as well the new elements of HUJI (created in Pakistan in 1980 and reshaped in POK in 1992), branches of Taliban and al Qaeda affiliated organizations, and the ISI created organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jais-e-Mohammad, Al Bdr etc rooted down in the country. These bodies collaborated with Pakistani organizations and agencies for spreading jihad in mainland India, facilitating Pakistani jihadis to infiltrate and carry out acts of terrorism and converting segments of Indian Muslims to the ideology of jihad and reaffirmation of the old demand of creating a bigger Bangistan (original demand of Jinnah) comprising present Bangladesh, Assam, and parts of West Bengal. Pakistan’s smoke-screen of Kashmir dispute was sculpted out as a concerted programme of creation of Bangistan in the east, Osmanistan in the south and Mughlistan in central and western India. With this objective in mind elements in Pakistan and Bangladesh created an atmosphere of near-total hostility against India.
In short, though India had liberally helped Bangladesh during the liberation war, pre-partition anti-Hindu and anti-India hate campaign created by the Muslim League pervaded even after creation of Pakistan. This was encouraged by Zia, Ershad and BNP. Pro-Pakistan and Islamist elements nearly overshadowed the secular forces. The Left forces were cruelly suppressed. Bangla involvement in Afghan jihad and Pakistan aggravated the situation. Hate Hindu and hate India sentiments still remain at the top layer of most of the people. The Awami League leaders have not been able to restore trust in India. Several irritants between the countries are exploited by pro-Pakistan and pro-Chinese forces in the army, bureaucracy and religious parties. India has to tread cautiously.
The other issues that keep haunting India’s security concerns are use of Bangladesh by northeastern insurgents groups like the NSCN (I), ULFA, NDFB, KLO, Manipuri Meitei groups and Tripura in connivance with the DGFI, ISI operatives and their jihadi spawns. This problem runs through Indo-Pak relations in East Pakistan, later Bangladesh, for over 60 years, starting from Phizo’s escape to Pakistan in 1948. There has been no waning in the situation except for a brief period between 1971 and 1975.
If we are to believe the security agencies, Indian insurgent groups are sheltered in at least 32 camps in Bangladesh, with some of the top leaders hosted by the ISI. The game of denial had improved somewhat during General Moeen’s hold on the interim government. Besides clamping down on jihadi activities inside the country he had minimized anti-India involvement of the government agencies and intelligence agencies.
India has to pay proper attention to this aspect of national security by keeping bilateral and international pressure on Bangladesh. Besides the police, paramilitary and armed forces, the political governments in Assam, West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur and Tripura have to strengthen their vigilance, sharpen intelligence gathering and sanitizing the border areas as much as possible. According to Jane’s Intelligence Review China has replaced Cambodia and Thailand as the main supplier of weapons to insurgent groups in India’s northeast and Myanmar. In an analysis of the Asian weapons black market, the defence think-tank said that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and rebel groups in Myanmar act as the “middleman” between Chinese arms manufacturers and insurgent groups in the Northeast, with most weapons routed through China’s Yunnan province.
Pointing out that the arms market in India is extremely lucrative; JIR said that a Chinese automatic rifle that is available for $500 in eastern Myanmar can command a price of $2,500 by the time it reaches the Northeast. Referring to an arms seizure by Myanmar authorities in 2001 that first brought out the trend, JIR said that “a consignment of several hundred Chinese assault rifles” were recovered while being transported to the Indian border at Tamu and were meant for “Manipuri UNLF and possibly other factions”. Officials in the Indian security establishment say that Chinese origin weapons are increasingly being seized from northeast insurgent groups and have even reached the illegal arms market in West Bengal, Assam and Uttar Pradesh.
Besides Chinese and Myanmar smugglers the Rohingya and Bangladesh smugglers still use the Thailand route to pump in weapons for use by the Indian insurgent groups. It is a different aspect of intelligence input as to how Pakistan and Bangladesh facilitate this arms traffic. However, continued inflow of weapons is a serious security concern. Another concern is inability of the Government of India to conclude the NSCN problem either through negotiation or military action. Same is the situation in Assam and Manipur.
The historical irritant of illegal Bangladeshi migration to Assam and rest of India is another issue that adds to demographic and security concerns.
Having had the opportunity of serving in the northeast for considerable period I have a feeling that political and administrative handling of the situation during last 60 years has been unsatisfactory and halfhearted. Vast military presence in the northeast for prolonged period has cost the nation immensely; much more than what is being spent in Kashmir. Mere military solution is a chimera but the armed forces, besides having geostrategic concerns from China, have to keep eyes on the jihadi groups and silent incursion by inimical countries with surreptitious arms supplies.
The other concern areas are: Dispute with Bangladesh over offshore oil exploitation, supply of gas to India, direct train transit route from Tripura to the rest of the country, trade balance and Indo-Myanmar agreement to open Kaladan-route to sea via Sittwe port are viewed as a potential hostile act by Pakistan, China and Bangladesh. While this route would open up trade from the northeast India, it is likely to acquire strategic-presence in the area. Not far from Cox’s Bazar and Dakhinpara in Bangladesh, Sittwe is likely to provide an additional platform for keeping an eye on coastal Bangladesh and the vital Straits of Malacca. In any future battle zone in the Bay of Bengal Indian presence in the area is also viewed adversely by the USA and the UK from their bases in the Indian Ocean.
Bangladesh as a friendly democratic and secular country can provide a mutual security shield in this part of the country. The future cannot be gazed in the crystal ball. It would require astute diplomatic, political and economic manipulations to revive the faded hopes of 1971. It is almost a new freedom struggle for Bangladesh.
The tendency of Bangladesh political parties to peddle the practice of ‘the winners take all’, severe corruption, Islamic fundamentalism and pro-Pakistan sentiments may not make the things easy for the new government. It would require bilateral and international efforts to put the restored democracy on correct rails.
India, as a political state and its agencies have to strengthen their guards against any subversion of the electoral award given by the people to their representatives for turning new pages in the history of the beleaguered country. A new stage of diplomatic and strategic relations is required towards Bangladesh to secure the eastern flank of India and stop the use of Bangladesh as a platform for spreading jihad in India and South East Asia.
http://maloykrishnadhar.com/
Bangladesh election held under supervision of the interim government and the army has initiated the process of a fresh freedom struggle. Democracy with secular principles was wiped out with the blood of Mujibur Rahman, his family and colleagues. Intermittent democratic experimentation with bouts of army rule had not only severely mutilated the spirit of the freedom struggle and Bengali cultural nationalism. This very foundation of the nation was massacred by the Mujib killers and subsequent pro-Pak Generals and Jamait-e-Islami. There is no doubt that the junior officers who staged the brutal coup in 1975 were simply not inspired by ‘misrule of the Awami League and the BAKSAL’; they were inspirited by Pakistan and certain clandestine operators of the CIA.
Later, General Zia-ur-Rahman, after his visit to Pakistan in September 1977, and hostile ambience created by Army-insiders and the regerminated Jammait-e-Islami opted for Islamisation, allowed the Jamait-e-Islami chief to return to Bangladesh. The Jamait had collaborated with Pakistan army and had committed innumerable atrocities on Hindu and Muslim supporters of the six point autonomy movement that turned to freedom struggle. The same year he initiated the process of creating the DGFI, in the model of the ISI. Between Zia and Ershad the BNP emerged as the party of the ‘real creator of Bangladesh-Zia-ur-Rahman.’ Short of conferring upon the General the honorific of Father of the Nation, the Begum did everything to augment the process of Islamisation and offering space to the resurgent religious congregations and the jihadis, which were seeded by General Zia, nurtured by General Ershad and given political recognition by the BNP.
General Zia’s cooperation with Pakistan and the USA in recruiting mujahids from Bangladesh (15000 odd) and sending to Pakistan for training and taking part in Afghan jihad had suddenly pushed Bangladesh to the path of radical Islamisation. The democratic process was suppressed; huge Ummah and Pakistani funds were allowed to pour in for encouraging the Bengali Muslims to spread the message of jihad in every nook and corner of Bangladesh. The Jamait-e-Islami, Islamic Chhatra Shibir, Ahle-e-Hadith Movement Bangladesh, Allhar Dal, Hizbut Tehrir and HUJI etc organizations (about 30) rooted in public mind with government support. Innumerable mosques and madrasas were constructed and the message of Jihad was spread with impunity. The same trend continued during General Ershad’s tenure.
hat was the period when Indian ethnic insurgent groups were manipulated by Bangladesh and Pakistani forces (the ISI and the DGFI) and secured sanctuaries were created for them with training and arming facilities. The political tussles between Awami League, BNP of Zia-ur-Rahman, Jatiyo Party of Ershad and Jamait-e-Islami created continued ambience of uncertainty, growth of Islamic militancy and internal chaos. Corruption in public life plagued Bangladesh heavily. The 1996 election in which Hasina Wazed’s Awami League and JeI combination returned to power witnessed near-total polarization between the political forces. Policy of political negativism adopted by all the political parties, increase of jihadi activities and greater involvement of Bangladesh and Pakistan in the ethnic insurgencies in India generated serious security implications for India. This was the period when Naga, Tripura, Assam and Bodo militants were given free access, training and supplied with arms both by the DGFI and the ISI. This period coincided with increased bonds between Pakistan based jihadi tanzeems and Bangladeshi jihadi tanzeems like HUJI, JMB, Bangla Bhai, Hijbut Tehrir, Islamic Chhatra Shibir and units of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hijbul Mujahideen and al Qaeda were found greater acceptability amongst the radicalized Muslims. It seemed that political negativism, manipulation by the DGFI and army, Pakistani influence and free flow of Ummah funds had put Bangladesh on the same footing as Pakistan developed after the Afghan jihad. Return of about 10 thousand Bangladeshi Afghan veterans, increased al Qaeda support and blatant interference by the ISI created internal turmoil with higher degree of violence and use of Bangladesh as a launching pad of operations against India in Assam and elsewhere. Several training camps were started for training malcontent Indian Muslims and the northeastern insurgent groups. Bangladesh became a highway for the jihadis and insurgents.
BNP’s bonhomie with the Jamait, other jihadi tanzeems like HUJI, Bangla Bhai, JMB etc received tremendous boost after 2001 general elections to the Jatiyo Sangsad, The table of results of 2001 Sansad election indicate the level of increase of influence of the BNP, Jamait and allied parties and erosion of pro-India forces:
BNP - 193: 41.40%
Awami League + 62: 40.02%
Jatiya Party (E) 14: 7.22 %
JeI BD 17: 4.28.
Other parties not mentioned.
The BNP and Jamait coalition with intermittent support from Ershad’s Jatiya Party did not succeed in giving a stable government. The Jamait-e-Islami took advantage of its presence in the government and systematically infiltrated the armed forces, intelligence, police and other vital government department giving fillip to pro-Pakistani and pro-jihadi forces. Politics of negativism, corruption by two sons of the PM, all pervasive siphoning of public wealth by politicians and bureaucrats was compounded by visible increase in jihadi violence inside Bangladesh. Between 2001 and 2006 more than 500 incidents of terrorist violence took place including 49 serial bomb blasts in a single day, attempt on the life of the British High Commissioner and Sheikh Hasina, by forces of HUJI, JMB and Bangla Bhai. The JMB, Ahl-e-Hadith and the Bangla Bhai were used by ruling factions to punish the Awami League, other dissenters and the minorities.
There was furour, violence and political impasse over appointment of the Caretaker Government which finally led to the distinctly visible indirect interference by the army and installation of a non-political Interim Government. The army chief wielded nearly supreme power with a view to restore some semblances of order, restoration of peace, and assurance in public mind that the new government meant business. Anti-corruption drive witnessed prolonged incineration of Begum Zia, her sons and Sheikh Hasina.
That the army chief was not insensitive to the ideals of foredoom struggle, and believed in restoration of democracy and some sanity in public life was proved by acts of banning of certain jihadi organizations, meting out death sentence on Bangla Bhai and JMB leaders and restriction of Hizbut Tehrir, Allahar Dal etc subversive organizations. Combination of various internal and international factors compelled the army chief to opt for elections in December 2008. General Moeen has not shown any personal hunger for power. The results were stunning:
Awami League + 230 : 49.0%
BNP + 30 : 33.2%
Jatiya Party (E) 16 : 07.0 %
JeI 2 : 04.6 %
The BNP and the Jamait fared well in Chattagram area, with significant performance in Noakhali, Khulna, Comilla. Pabna and Bogra. The Awami League swept almost in all the districts with Jatiya Party dominating areas of North Bangladesh, the usual stronghold of Ershad.
A study of the parties contesting the elections throws out interesting aspects both for Bangladesh and India:
Party : Number of candidates
Islamic Front Bangladesh (Pakistan funded) : 2
Islamic Movement Bangladesh (HUJI) : 266
Islami Oikya Jote (Al Qaeda Affiliate) : 4
United Citizens Movement : 11
Krishak Shramik Janata League : 46
Democratic Party : 5
People’s Front (Pro-JMB) : 14
Gano Forum : 45
Jamaat-e-Ulama Islam Bangladesh : 7
Zaker Party (Pro-Taliban) : 37
National Democratic Party (Ahl-e Hadith faction) : 2
Jatiya Party : 46
Jatiya Party-JP : 7
Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasad : 6
Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-JSD: 44
National People’s Party (Allhar Dal) : 29
Progressive Democratic Party : 21
Freedom Party (Pro Taliban) : 2
Bangladesh Awami League : 259
Bangladesh Islamic Front (Pro-al Qaeda) : 18
Bangladesh Kalayan Party : 39
Bangladesh Khilafat Andolan (Pro Pak) : 32
Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis (pro-Pak) : 8
Bangladesh Jatiya Party : 10
Bangladesh Jatiya Party-BJP : 2
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (Pro Pak) : 256
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (Pro-Pak) : 39
Bangladesh Tarikat Federation (Pr-Hizbut Tehrir) : 31
Bangladesh National Awami Party : 14
Bangladesh National Awami Party-Bangladesh NAP : 5
Bangladesh Muslim League (Pro-Pak) : 5
Bangladesher Samajtantrik Dal : 57
Workers Party of Bangladesh : 5
Communist Party of Bangladesh : 38
Revolutionary Workers Party of Bangladesh : 5
Bangladesher Samayabadi Dal (ML) : 1
Bikalapdhara Bangladesh (Pro-Moscow) : 62
Liberal Democratic Party : 18
Independent (45 belonging to JMB) : 141
Total:1538
This would show that the HUJI after failing to register itself as a political party contested in the name of Islamic Movement Bangladesh. Almost all the jihadi parties fielded good number of candidates but failed to secure more than 02.01 % of votes. However the HUJI affiliated party managed to get nearly 3 % votes. One of the candidates was elected to Jatiyao Sangsad as independent.
Various analysts have offered scores of reasons for the stunning success of Awami League combination. Most cogent reasons have been offered are:
1.Awami League and BNP are nearly at par with their number of supporters. Awami league’s regular supporters did vote for Awami League as usual and they had no reason to love BNP - so Awami League grabbed the regular devoted votes. The BNP voters were disunited and wilted under army pressure.
2. The Swing Voters wanted to teach BNP a lesson for their corruption and had no other alternative than accepting the Mohajot as voting for BNP would have justified stinking corruption by two sons of Begum Zia and her colleagues.
3. The BNP supporters or activists were divided as to pro-change and anti-change groups; the dissenters like Bodrudouza and Mohammad Oli gave reasons to the anti-BNP lobbies reasons to ponder upon BNP’s lack of coordination and disciplined approach.
4. BNP stalwarts or the pivotal leaders were kept behind the bars until the last few days while Awami League had almost all their pivotal figures out of jail all the time.
5. Awami League had always supported the caretaker Government and had promised to legalise their unconstitutional works if voted to power. It has been insinuated that General Moeen is a pro-Mujib person and he was influenced by India and the US to favour a more democratic group.
6. Hasina had a few anti-Jamiat Islamic groups in her pocket which got the votes of anti-Jamait pro-Islamic people on their side and Hasian promised not to enact any anti-Islamic laws.
7. Ershad commands a few BNP votes and has comfortable support in northern districts.
8. New generation of voters did not have the experience of seeing Awami League’s rule as adults; rather they saw the corrupt rule of Zia which made them anti-BNP. They were not aware that Awami League always failed to control crime and had displayed ‘winner takes all’ attitude since 1971.
9. Awami League is better in price control.BNP is not good at that and owing to present price hike people could not afford to take chances with any more price hike as that would have meant playing with starvation. BNP has the bad reputation of collaboration with corrupt market manipulators.
10. Women voters were successfully convinced that BNP meant oppression on women and it encourage the Islamists. BNP regime had allowed near total control of the civil society by al Qaeda, Taliban and Pakistani elements. People had become weary of jihadi violence and growing rhetoric on Islamisation of the society.
11. Bangladesh is surrounded by Maoists and Communists and Islam was projected as an oppressive force by JMB and HUJI etc as a threat to generally democratic Bengali society. Communism and Socialism dominated the media who supported Awami League.
12. Awami League banked on the issue of bringing the Jamiat leaders to war-tribunals when BNP owing to failure of its leaders could not successfully defend the issue with a counter challenge. Moreover, the BNP was perceived as a force protecting the killers of Mujib and other Awami League leaders.
13. Hasina lobbied abroad to win international support for Awami League when BNP concentrated on domestic support only. Zia was busy begging for release of her sons and was encumbered with revelations that her sons had stacked away billions in foreign banks by robbing the common people.
14. Finally, it must be added that by purging of the DGFI and some segments of the army brass closer to the Jamait and BNP General Moeen had good ambience to ensure a smooth election, though there are allegations that Gen Moeen had favoured the Awami League combination. Certain quarters in Dhaka believe that the army chief was afraid of a coup against him by the pro-Jamait and pro-BNP Generals.
No analysis can explain the stunning victory of Obama and Hasina. The people of Bangladesh have opted for a change and it is time for Hasina to deliver.
The goodness of the cake can only be proved by eating it. Her crown is full of thorns. She has excluded several veterans from ministerial berths. They wield influence in their own pocket-Burroughs. They are watchful of the internal groupings and may not hesitate to gang up with destabilizing forces. Begum Zia is most likely to again take the parliamentary politics to the streets and adopt the old policy of ‘either I or none.” Though her vote percentage has reduced she has maintained the steady grassroots elements on her side and her core vote percentage has not diminished. Tactically she is distancing her party from the Jamait for a while but once the opposition to the war-criminal trials involving the Jamait leaders starts Zia’s forces is likely to rally behind them along with the jihadi organizations. Hasina has a poor record of controlling law and order and often buckles down under pressure of the Islamic forces.
All the senior army officers are not with General Moeen. Several pro-BNP and pro-Jamait military top brass are watching the developments. Once Hasina and party tries to prosecute some of the former army officers for war crimes they are likely to rebel and topple her. They have a better friend in Begum Zia. Hasina would require purging the DGFI and the administration of pro-Jamait elements with helps from friendly army Generals. General Moeen may agree to help her for some costs; indirect army presence in the administration. Hopefully Hasina and allies would accommodate them for better stability and longer survival.
As far as India is concerned the situation appears to be favourable. “With terrorism in the region a pressing concern, especially after the Mumbai attacks, Hasina’s victory will bring some comfort to New Delhi as she took tough steps against the anti-India militant groups when she was in power in the mid-1990s. In contrast, there was a sharp spike in militancy and Islamic fundamentalism during Zia’s tenure.” (Times of India December 30, 2008).
What are the ground realities?
Bangladesh reeks with Islamist and jihadi organizations numbering nearly 40. The main groups are: Jamait-e-Islami, Islamic Chhatra Shibir, Islami Oikya Jote, HUJI, JMB, Jagrato Muslim Janata, Sahadat-e-Alam-al-Hiqma, Ahl-e-Hadith, Hizbut Tawhid, Hizbut Tehrir, Allahar Dal, Islamic Jubo Sangha, Al-Falah A’am Unnayan Sangstha, Islami Biplobi Parishad, Biswa Islami Front, Al Jamaitul Islamiya, Al Khidmat Bahini, Al Mujahid, Al Harqat-al-Islamia, Al Mahfuz-al-Islami, Joish-e-Mustafa (affiliated to Jais-e-Mohammad of Pakistan), Muslim Guerrilla Bahini etc.
These organistaions are spread all over Bangladesh. Most of the rural areas are influenced by them and they receive liberal funding from Arabian countries and other NGOs.
The Interim Government had banned Ahl-e-Hadith, HUJI and Hizbut Tehrir. The JMB came under heavy hammers and three of its top leaders were sentenced to death. But, like Pakistan, the jihadi organizations keep on changing names and function with impunity at the grassroots level. This, however, should not give an impression that Bangladesh is a Taliban country like Pakistan. The conflict situation between pro-Pakistani forces, believers in democracy and secularism and Bengali cultural nationalists is palpably perceptible. After General Zia’s collaboration with the USA and Pakistan during Afghan jihad and return of over 7000 Bengali Afghan veterans, infiltration by al Qaeda and Taliban had changed the social and political ambience in Bangladesh. By allowing rerooting of the Jamait and by converting the country to Islamic principles Zia had helped creation of a force that thrived on Arab money, jihadi ideology and religious resurgence and fundamentalism.
By encouraging anti-India and anti-Hindu sentiments Zia, Ershad and Begum Zia had given direct and indirect support to the Islamicised jihadi forces. Between 1991 and 2000 Bangladesh created safe niche for the jihadis and forces antagonistic to India.
Pakistan’s policy of encouraging, sheltering and arming the Indian rebel groups was pursued by Zia-created DGFI, BDR and the jihadi elements that came to root in the country. Faded secular elements and cultural Bengali nationalists were pushed aside and hate-India sentiments were generated by Bangladeshi and Pakistani elements operating in political parties, bureaucracy, armed forces and segments of people Islamicised drastically. The former Muslim League elements who had taken shelter under other parties activated their anti-minority and anti-India campaign. Pakistan and China encouraged these developments.
Besides the Jamait, Ahl-e-Hadith and Tablighi Jammat which have garlanding presence in India and Pakistan as well the new elements of HUJI (created in Pakistan in 1980 and reshaped in POK in 1992), branches of Taliban and al Qaeda affiliated organizations, and the ISI created organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jais-e-Mohammad, Al Bdr etc rooted down in the country. These bodies collaborated with Pakistani organizations and agencies for spreading jihad in mainland India, facilitating Pakistani jihadis to infiltrate and carry out acts of terrorism and converting segments of Indian Muslims to the ideology of jihad and reaffirmation of the old demand of creating a bigger Bangistan (original demand of Jinnah) comprising present Bangladesh, Assam, and parts of West Bengal. Pakistan’s smoke-screen of Kashmir dispute was sculpted out as a concerted programme of creation of Bangistan in the east, Osmanistan in the south and Mughlistan in central and western India. With this objective in mind elements in Pakistan and Bangladesh created an atmosphere of near-total hostility against India.
In short, though India had liberally helped Bangladesh during the liberation war, pre-partition anti-Hindu and anti-India hate campaign created by the Muslim League pervaded even after creation of Pakistan. This was encouraged by Zia, Ershad and BNP. Pro-Pakistan and Islamist elements nearly overshadowed the secular forces. The Left forces were cruelly suppressed. Bangla involvement in Afghan jihad and Pakistan aggravated the situation. Hate Hindu and hate India sentiments still remain at the top layer of most of the people. The Awami League leaders have not been able to restore trust in India. Several irritants between the countries are exploited by pro-Pakistan and pro-Chinese forces in the army, bureaucracy and religious parties. India has to tread cautiously.
The other issues that keep haunting India’s security concerns are use of Bangladesh by northeastern insurgents groups like the NSCN (I), ULFA, NDFB, KLO, Manipuri Meitei groups and Tripura in connivance with the DGFI, ISI operatives and their jihadi spawns. This problem runs through Indo-Pak relations in East Pakistan, later Bangladesh, for over 60 years, starting from Phizo’s escape to Pakistan in 1948. There has been no waning in the situation except for a brief period between 1971 and 1975.
If we are to believe the security agencies, Indian insurgent groups are sheltered in at least 32 camps in Bangladesh, with some of the top leaders hosted by the ISI. The game of denial had improved somewhat during General Moeen’s hold on the interim government. Besides clamping down on jihadi activities inside the country he had minimized anti-India involvement of the government agencies and intelligence agencies.
India has to pay proper attention to this aspect of national security by keeping bilateral and international pressure on Bangladesh. Besides the police, paramilitary and armed forces, the political governments in Assam, West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur and Tripura have to strengthen their vigilance, sharpen intelligence gathering and sanitizing the border areas as much as possible. According to Jane’s Intelligence Review China has replaced Cambodia and Thailand as the main supplier of weapons to insurgent groups in India’s northeast and Myanmar. In an analysis of the Asian weapons black market, the defence think-tank said that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and rebel groups in Myanmar act as the “middleman” between Chinese arms manufacturers and insurgent groups in the Northeast, with most weapons routed through China’s Yunnan province.
Pointing out that the arms market in India is extremely lucrative; JIR said that a Chinese automatic rifle that is available for $500 in eastern Myanmar can command a price of $2,500 by the time it reaches the Northeast. Referring to an arms seizure by Myanmar authorities in 2001 that first brought out the trend, JIR said that “a consignment of several hundred Chinese assault rifles” were recovered while being transported to the Indian border at Tamu and were meant for “Manipuri UNLF and possibly other factions”. Officials in the Indian security establishment say that Chinese origin weapons are increasingly being seized from northeast insurgent groups and have even reached the illegal arms market in West Bengal, Assam and Uttar Pradesh.
Besides Chinese and Myanmar smugglers the Rohingya and Bangladesh smugglers still use the Thailand route to pump in weapons for use by the Indian insurgent groups. It is a different aspect of intelligence input as to how Pakistan and Bangladesh facilitate this arms traffic. However, continued inflow of weapons is a serious security concern. Another concern is inability of the Government of India to conclude the NSCN problem either through negotiation or military action. Same is the situation in Assam and Manipur.
The historical irritant of illegal Bangladeshi migration to Assam and rest of India is another issue that adds to demographic and security concerns.
Having had the opportunity of serving in the northeast for considerable period I have a feeling that political and administrative handling of the situation during last 60 years has been unsatisfactory and halfhearted. Vast military presence in the northeast for prolonged period has cost the nation immensely; much more than what is being spent in Kashmir. Mere military solution is a chimera but the armed forces, besides having geostrategic concerns from China, have to keep eyes on the jihadi groups and silent incursion by inimical countries with surreptitious arms supplies.
The other concern areas are: Dispute with Bangladesh over offshore oil exploitation, supply of gas to India, direct train transit route from Tripura to the rest of the country, trade balance and Indo-Myanmar agreement to open Kaladan-route to sea via Sittwe port are viewed as a potential hostile act by Pakistan, China and Bangladesh. While this route would open up trade from the northeast India, it is likely to acquire strategic-presence in the area. Not far from Cox’s Bazar and Dakhinpara in Bangladesh, Sittwe is likely to provide an additional platform for keeping an eye on coastal Bangladesh and the vital Straits of Malacca. In any future battle zone in the Bay of Bengal Indian presence in the area is also viewed adversely by the USA and the UK from their bases in the Indian Ocean.
Bangladesh as a friendly democratic and secular country can provide a mutual security shield in this part of the country. The future cannot be gazed in the crystal ball. It would require astute diplomatic, political and economic manipulations to revive the faded hopes of 1971. It is almost a new freedom struggle for Bangladesh.
The tendency of Bangladesh political parties to peddle the practice of ‘the winners take all’, severe corruption, Islamic fundamentalism and pro-Pakistan sentiments may not make the things easy for the new government. It would require bilateral and international efforts to put the restored democracy on correct rails.
India, as a political state and its agencies have to strengthen their guards against any subversion of the electoral award given by the people to their representatives for turning new pages in the history of the beleaguered country. A new stage of diplomatic and strategic relations is required towards Bangladesh to secure the eastern flank of India and stop the use of Bangladesh as a platform for spreading jihad in India and South East Asia.
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Kuki Inpi warns
Jiribam, February 16 : Kuki Inpi, Jiri-Tamenglong zone demanded the appointment of lecturers for the subjects of Thadou, Kuki, Hmar and Paite of Jiribam Higher Secondary School at the earliest.
Inpi warned of intense agitation against Education Department if the demands are not fulfilled.
Meanwhile, a temple of Tingkao Raguang Chapriak was inaugurated at Oinamlong village today.
Commandant of 5 Assam Rifles, Colonel P Choudhury, Second in Command of 5 Assam Rifles, Kaundal and Maj Manmohan of 5 AR were the special invitees of the inaugural function.
Inpi warned of intense agitation against Education Department if the demands are not fulfilled.
Meanwhile, a temple of Tingkao Raguang Chapriak was inaugurated at Oinamlong village today.
Commandant of 5 Assam Rifles, Colonel P Choudhury, Second in Command of 5 Assam Rifles, Kaundal and Maj Manmohan of 5 AR were the special invitees of the inaugural function.
KNF appeals
Imphal, February 16 : Noting the alleged controversies surrounding recognition of tribes under Kuki family and sensing the sensitive nature of the issue, the Kuki National Front (KNF) has appealed to all concerned individuals/organisations not to make any press release or publication or any sort of programme on the issue/subject.
A press release issued by the outfit's information and publicity secretary LH Stephen also urged upon the relevant Government Department not to issue any tribe certificate to any tribe belonging to Kuki family.
It also asked all Government Departments not to make any recruitment on the basis of such certificates.
It further said that this prohibition order is issued in the interest of the people considering the alleged sensitive nature of the issue.
A press release issued by the outfit's information and publicity secretary LH Stephen also urged upon the relevant Government Department not to issue any tribe certificate to any tribe belonging to Kuki family.
It also asked all Government Departments not to make any recruitment on the basis of such certificates.
It further said that this prohibition order is issued in the interest of the people considering the alleged sensitive nature of the issue.
Huge ULFA investments in Bangla
R Dutta Choudhury
GUWAHATI, Feb 9 – A substantial portion of the money extorted by the militant groups in Assam is being invested in Bangladesh, but it is difficult to trace out the same because the money is invested under false names, highly placed police sources said. Talking to The Assam Tribune, sources said that among the militant groups of Assam, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is believed to have the highest investments in the neighbouring country. Sources said that according to information available, the leaders of the outfit living in Bangladesh managed to invest huge amounts of money mainly in the hospitality sector, including hotels as well as in other sectors like shipping and other industries.
Sources said that according to information available with the security forces, the top leaders of the ULFA are still in Bangladesh, but they relocate from time to time. As per a conservative estimate, at least 170 members of the ULFA are in the camps and hideouts in the neighbouring country and in some cases, they also shared camps with other militant groups of North East. “It is very easy for anyone to get the support even from Government officials in an underdeveloped country and other groups by providing them money. The militants of North East are doing just that. It is believed that the ULFA is receiving help from the DGFi, the intelligence agency of Bangladesh, but we do not have enough evidence to determine whether the agency as a whole is helping the militants or whether only a few officials are providing help,” sources admitted.
Similarly, the ousted chairman of the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB) Ranjan Daimary is still in Bangladesh and he has at least 130 cadres with him. Sources said that the division in the ranks of the NDFB following the ouster of Ranjan by the general assembly of the outfit would be helpful for the security forces as “now we know which of the members of the outfit are in favour of talks and which are not. Any member of the outfit found to be outside the designated camps will now be treated as supporters of the ousted chief of the outfit.” Sources also pointed out that in recent times several members of the outfit have been arrested by the police when they were found outside the designated camps in violation of the ground rules of the cease-fire agreement.
Though the Government of India is hopeful of the new Government in Bangladesh taking action against the militants taking shelter in the neighbouring country, police sources said that the actions of the Awami League Government should be viewed closely before arriving at a conclusions. It is a fact that the Awami League has always been closer to India, but the new Government in Bangladesh must act to prove its willingness to help out India as was done by the Government of Bhutan. During the previous tenure of the Awami League Government, the ULFA changed its headquarter from Bangladesh to Bhutan, but police sources said that it might have been a tactical move by the militant group. During that time only the ULFA general secretary Anup Cheita was arrested in Bangladesh, but he was not handed over to India, while the other top leaders of the ULFA continued to stay in Bangladesh, sources pointed out. Sources also revealed that in the last five years the militants had a free run in Bangladesh, which created serious problems for the North East states.
Sources further said that the presence of jehadi elements in Bangladesh is also posing a serious threat to India, particularly to the North East as such groups have started directly helping the militant groups of Assam. There have been instances when jehadi elements also trained up members of Assam based militant groups and reportedly sent their own personnel to help the local groups to carry out acts of violence, sources added.
GUWAHATI, Feb 9 – A substantial portion of the money extorted by the militant groups in Assam is being invested in Bangladesh, but it is difficult to trace out the same because the money is invested under false names, highly placed police sources said. Talking to The Assam Tribune, sources said that among the militant groups of Assam, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is believed to have the highest investments in the neighbouring country. Sources said that according to information available, the leaders of the outfit living in Bangladesh managed to invest huge amounts of money mainly in the hospitality sector, including hotels as well as in other sectors like shipping and other industries.
Sources said that according to information available with the security forces, the top leaders of the ULFA are still in Bangladesh, but they relocate from time to time. As per a conservative estimate, at least 170 members of the ULFA are in the camps and hideouts in the neighbouring country and in some cases, they also shared camps with other militant groups of North East. “It is very easy for anyone to get the support even from Government officials in an underdeveloped country and other groups by providing them money. The militants of North East are doing just that. It is believed that the ULFA is receiving help from the DGFi, the intelligence agency of Bangladesh, but we do not have enough evidence to determine whether the agency as a whole is helping the militants or whether only a few officials are providing help,” sources admitted.
Similarly, the ousted chairman of the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB) Ranjan Daimary is still in Bangladesh and he has at least 130 cadres with him. Sources said that the division in the ranks of the NDFB following the ouster of Ranjan by the general assembly of the outfit would be helpful for the security forces as “now we know which of the members of the outfit are in favour of talks and which are not. Any member of the outfit found to be outside the designated camps will now be treated as supporters of the ousted chief of the outfit.” Sources also pointed out that in recent times several members of the outfit have been arrested by the police when they were found outside the designated camps in violation of the ground rules of the cease-fire agreement.
Though the Government of India is hopeful of the new Government in Bangladesh taking action against the militants taking shelter in the neighbouring country, police sources said that the actions of the Awami League Government should be viewed closely before arriving at a conclusions. It is a fact that the Awami League has always been closer to India, but the new Government in Bangladesh must act to prove its willingness to help out India as was done by the Government of Bhutan. During the previous tenure of the Awami League Government, the ULFA changed its headquarter from Bangladesh to Bhutan, but police sources said that it might have been a tactical move by the militant group. During that time only the ULFA general secretary Anup Cheita was arrested in Bangladesh, but he was not handed over to India, while the other top leaders of the ULFA continued to stay in Bangladesh, sources pointed out. Sources also revealed that in the last five years the militants had a free run in Bangladesh, which created serious problems for the North East states.
Sources further said that the presence of jehadi elements in Bangladesh is also posing a serious threat to India, particularly to the North East as such groups have started directly helping the militant groups of Assam. There have been instances when jehadi elements also trained up members of Assam based militant groups and reportedly sent their own personnel to help the local groups to carry out acts of violence, sources added.
Tiger found dead in Uttar Pradesh
Lucknow, Feb 9 A male adult tiger has been found dead in a forest area in Uttar Pradesh’s Pilibhit district, an official said Monday.
“The tiger was found dead on a tree Sunday evening in the Mahof forest,” divisional forest officer Pramod Gupta told IANS over telephone.
“The tiger is around 15 years old. We have not found any physical injury marks on the animal,” he said.
The tiger has been sent for post-mortem to the Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI) at Bareilly.
According to officials, the forests in Pilibhit, over 250 km from Lucknow, are home to around 35 tigers.
“The tiger was found dead on a tree Sunday evening in the Mahof forest,” divisional forest officer Pramod Gupta told IANS over telephone.
“The tiger is around 15 years old. We have not found any physical injury marks on the animal,” he said.
The tiger has been sent for post-mortem to the Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI) at Bareilly.
According to officials, the forests in Pilibhit, over 250 km from Lucknow, are home to around 35 tigers.
Mathur asks ULFA to eschew violence
SIVASAGAR, Feb 9 – Assam Governor S C Mathur today said that the unilateral ceasefire declared by the breakaway 28 battalion of ULFA had ushered in peace in the region and asked other groups of the banned outfit to follow suit, reports PTI. “The other ULFA battalions should follow the same and help the government in developing the State,” Mathur, on a visit to this upper Assam town, told reporters.
Expressing satisfaction over the declaration of unilateral ceasefire by ULFA’s breakaway 28 battalion, Mathur assured that the State Government would go in for massive development work.
The Governor appreciated the results achieved by the unified command structure formed to combat insurgency in the State and urged people to cooperate with the Government to restore peace in Assam.
Admitting that large-scale influx from Bangladesh was a matter of concern, the governor hoped that the new Awami League-led government in Dhaka would address the problem.
Expressing satisfaction over the declaration of unilateral ceasefire by ULFA’s breakaway 28 battalion, Mathur assured that the State Government would go in for massive development work.
The Governor appreciated the results achieved by the unified command structure formed to combat insurgency in the State and urged people to cooperate with the Government to restore peace in Assam.
Admitting that large-scale influx from Bangladesh was a matter of concern, the governor hoped that the new Awami League-led government in Dhaka would address the problem.
Manipur students link up live with space station astronaut
IMPHAL, Feb 9 : A `Space talk` programme with an astronaut stationed at the International Space Station (ISS) and students of the Manipur University and Central Agricultural University, CAU, was held today at the Assembly Hall of CAU at Iroisemba under the sponsorship of a group named Friends of Assam and Seven Sisters (FASS).
The space talk with Mike Fincke, NASA astronaut and commander of the Expedition 18 Mission was held for about 10 minutes. The communication was operated by Iris, vice chairman of the Amateur Radio Ground Station, Australia.
The talk was participated by 14 students of Manipur University and Central Agricultural University. Answering a question, Mike Fincke said that his space home which was 360 km away from earth was very cold now.
He said it was very tiring to maintain the space home and asked about the Loktak lake in Manipur which he said looked beautiful from space when they passed over this part of the globe.
He also said that among the buildings only the Great Wall of China could be seen as the earth was foggy almost all the time.
He further said that as living in space needs exercise they exercised for two hours every day. The oxygen brought from the earth was also recycled by them, he added.
The astronaut said that his wife was from Assam and promised that he would visit Manipur when he came to the north east. The students at the talk were also impressed when the spaceman spoke a little Manipuri to their surprise.
The talk started from 3.36.19 sec today evening and lasted for 10 minutes. The students present at the show, while speaking to the media after the show, said they were inspired by the NASA astronaut and now wanted to become astronauts themselves.
The space talk with Mike Fincke, NASA astronaut and commander of the Expedition 18 Mission was held for about 10 minutes. The communication was operated by Iris, vice chairman of the Amateur Radio Ground Station, Australia.
The talk was participated by 14 students of Manipur University and Central Agricultural University. Answering a question, Mike Fincke said that his space home which was 360 km away from earth was very cold now.
He said it was very tiring to maintain the space home and asked about the Loktak lake in Manipur which he said looked beautiful from space when they passed over this part of the globe.
He also said that among the buildings only the Great Wall of China could be seen as the earth was foggy almost all the time.
He further said that as living in space needs exercise they exercised for two hours every day. The oxygen brought from the earth was also recycled by them, he added.
The astronaut said that his wife was from Assam and promised that he would visit Manipur when he came to the north east. The students at the talk were also impressed when the spaceman spoke a little Manipuri to their surprise.
The talk started from 3.36.19 sec today evening and lasted for 10 minutes. The students present at the show, while speaking to the media after the show, said they were inspired by the NASA astronaut and now wanted to become astronauts themselves.
It’s Tzipi against Bibi in crucial Israeli elections
Tel Aviv, Feb 9 The upcoming Israeli elections are crucial for the Middle East peace process. Yet that process, revived a little more than one year ago after a seven-year freeze, is hardly on the mind of the average Israeli voter. With Tuesday’s poll scheduled less than one month after Israel ended a ferocious offensive in Gaza, it is security - not the peace process - which is topping the public agenda.
A victory for the hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud is likely to spell years of stagnation, while one for the centrist Tzipi Livni of Kadima would see negotiations at least continue in their present form, albeit with no magic wand.
As Livni, using Netanyahu’s nickname, put it herself: “It’s Tzipi against Bibi.”
In an attempt to appeal to a broader electorate including the centre, and to reassure world leaders with whom he will have to work as prime minister, Netanyahu has somewhat modified his plan for “economic peace” which called for economic development of the West Bank while delaying negotiations indefinitely.
Netanyahu now promises he will not break off the talks and is “committed to a process with the Palestinians that will combine negotiations with economic development”.
But a spokesman clarified he wants to discuss security first before dealing with other “core issues” of the conflict. He has also vowed unequivocally he will not give up East Jerusalem, nor the Jordan Valley, which would make deadlock inevitable.
Netanyahu also opposes a fully sovereign Palestinian state which could sign treaties with Israel’s enemies.
The 59-year-old opposition leader has vowed to “finish the job” of Israel’s Gaza offensive and topple the Hamas government in the strip. His 51-year-old adversary, Foreign Minister Livni, has threatened she would launch another offensive if rocket attacks from Gaza continue.
Livni is no ultra dove, but nevertheless a staunch believer in a two-state solution to the conflict. Currently Israel’s chief negotiator, she would continue the intense negotiating process launched in Annapolis, Maryland in November 2007.
However most Israelis see no point in conducting negotiations with moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, widely seen as too weak to implement a treaty anyway, when Hamas, which does not recognise Israel’s right to exist, remains in control of the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu, currently the favourite, is quick to tap on these sentiments.
“If you think that the restraint opposite Hamas was a mistake (…) you think like the Likud, you think like Benjamin Netanyahu,” declares his television ad.
The Likud, which lagged slightly behind Livni early on in the election campaign last autumn, opened a gap when violence in Gaza flared further. It has held a clear lead since.
Politicians, even some in Kadima behind closed doors, are already talking as if victory for Netanyahu is a certainty and have begun considering the kind of coalition he is likely to build. The ultra-Orthodox Shas party, expected to come in fifth and traditionally a coalition breaker or maker, has already announced even before the election that it will recommend to President Shimon Peres he charge Netanyahu with forming the next government.
Despite the support by the right-wing, Netanyahu has said he wants a broad coalition, including Labour, Kadima, or both.
Even if Livni makes a dramatic recovery and emerges against all current expectations as the winner, the right-wing bloc is now likely to become a majority in the Israeli parliament. She would have a hard time pushing through any progress in the peace process.
Livni paved the way for the early elections when she announced in late October that she was unable to form a new government, one month after Kadima’s Ehud Olmert resigned the premiership amid corruption allegations. At the time, she refused to sign a coalition deal with Shas that ruled out negotiations on Jerusalem, saying such a deal would place her at the head of a “paralysed cabinet” and would “block every possibility for hope and peace in the state of Israel”.
Unable to form a coalition then, she would have even more difficulty building a pro-peace one now.
At least 15 percent of voters - the equivalent of 18 mandates in the 120-seat Israeli parliament - say they are still undecided. Livni hopes to win over enough of those to close the gap of several mandates between Kadima and the Likud.
“Don’t vote out of fear. Don’t vote out of desperation. Vote out of hope!” she implores in her television ad.
But whether that sums up the current mood in Israel is a big question.
A victory for the hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud is likely to spell years of stagnation, while one for the centrist Tzipi Livni of Kadima would see negotiations at least continue in their present form, albeit with no magic wand.
As Livni, using Netanyahu’s nickname, put it herself: “It’s Tzipi against Bibi.”
In an attempt to appeal to a broader electorate including the centre, and to reassure world leaders with whom he will have to work as prime minister, Netanyahu has somewhat modified his plan for “economic peace” which called for economic development of the West Bank while delaying negotiations indefinitely.
Netanyahu now promises he will not break off the talks and is “committed to a process with the Palestinians that will combine negotiations with economic development”.
But a spokesman clarified he wants to discuss security first before dealing with other “core issues” of the conflict. He has also vowed unequivocally he will not give up East Jerusalem, nor the Jordan Valley, which would make deadlock inevitable.
Netanyahu also opposes a fully sovereign Palestinian state which could sign treaties with Israel’s enemies.
The 59-year-old opposition leader has vowed to “finish the job” of Israel’s Gaza offensive and topple the Hamas government in the strip. His 51-year-old adversary, Foreign Minister Livni, has threatened she would launch another offensive if rocket attacks from Gaza continue.
Livni is no ultra dove, but nevertheless a staunch believer in a two-state solution to the conflict. Currently Israel’s chief negotiator, she would continue the intense negotiating process launched in Annapolis, Maryland in November 2007.
However most Israelis see no point in conducting negotiations with moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, widely seen as too weak to implement a treaty anyway, when Hamas, which does not recognise Israel’s right to exist, remains in control of the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu, currently the favourite, is quick to tap on these sentiments.
“If you think that the restraint opposite Hamas was a mistake (…) you think like the Likud, you think like Benjamin Netanyahu,” declares his television ad.
The Likud, which lagged slightly behind Livni early on in the election campaign last autumn, opened a gap when violence in Gaza flared further. It has held a clear lead since.
Politicians, even some in Kadima behind closed doors, are already talking as if victory for Netanyahu is a certainty and have begun considering the kind of coalition he is likely to build. The ultra-Orthodox Shas party, expected to come in fifth and traditionally a coalition breaker or maker, has already announced even before the election that it will recommend to President Shimon Peres he charge Netanyahu with forming the next government.
Despite the support by the right-wing, Netanyahu has said he wants a broad coalition, including Labour, Kadima, or both.
Even if Livni makes a dramatic recovery and emerges against all current expectations as the winner, the right-wing bloc is now likely to become a majority in the Israeli parliament. She would have a hard time pushing through any progress in the peace process.
Livni paved the way for the early elections when she announced in late October that she was unable to form a new government, one month after Kadima’s Ehud Olmert resigned the premiership amid corruption allegations. At the time, she refused to sign a coalition deal with Shas that ruled out negotiations on Jerusalem, saying such a deal would place her at the head of a “paralysed cabinet” and would “block every possibility for hope and peace in the state of Israel”.
Unable to form a coalition then, she would have even more difficulty building a pro-peace one now.
At least 15 percent of voters - the equivalent of 18 mandates in the 120-seat Israeli parliament - say they are still undecided. Livni hopes to win over enough of those to close the gap of several mandates between Kadima and the Likud.
“Don’t vote out of fear. Don’t vote out of desperation. Vote out of hope!” she implores in her television ad.
But whether that sums up the current mood in Israel is a big question.
Fake currency racket unearthed in Assam
Dhubri, Feb 9 : A fake currency racket was unearthed along the Indo-Bangla border with the nabbing of a person with fake currency notes in lower Assam's Dhubri district, defence sources said on Monday.
Acting on a tip-off, personnel from Army's 21 Jat regiment nabbed Rashidul Islam, a resident of Thakurambari, here late Sunday.
He was allegedly carrying fake notes with a face value of Rs 30,000.
During interrogation, Islam, said he had brought the fake notes printed in Bangladesh, only a km away from his village, as a sample.
He was allegedly carrying fake notes with a face value of Rs 30,000.
Beware of energy’s robber barons
Before we invest in overseas gas pipelines, we should look at how Russia has held Europe to ransom
By Rajeev Srinivasa
India, in its quest for energy security, is leaving no stone unturned. It surely needs to consider all means for energy independence, but it should pause to examine the risks. Recent events involving Russia, the world’s largest supplier of natural gas, are an indicator of some potential dangers.
In early January, Russia’s giant energy company Gazprom suddenly cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. As a result, much of Europe shivered without heat because pipelines through Ukraine supply most of their gas. Moscow exercised its gas clout in 2008 as well, ostensibly over pricing and transit fees, but more likely as an assertion of its readiness to wield energy as a weapon. The Russian act has implications for two gas pipelines that concern India: TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) and IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India).
By Rajeev Srinivasa
India, in its quest for energy security, is leaving no stone unturned. It surely needs to consider all means for energy independence, but it should pause to examine the risks. Recent events involving Russia, the world’s largest supplier of natural gas, are an indicator of some potential dangers.
In early January, Russia’s giant energy company Gazprom suddenly cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. As a result, much of Europe shivered without heat because pipelines through Ukraine supply most of their gas. Moscow exercised its gas clout in 2008 as well, ostensibly over pricing and transit fees, but more likely as an assertion of its readiness to wield energy as a weapon. The Russian act has implications for two gas pipelines that concern India: TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) and IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India).
At issue is the stranglehold both monopoly suppliers and transiting countries may have over energy security. Given that TAPI and IPI would transit through rough terrain with restive populations such as Afghanistan and Baluchistan, the chances of disruption are high, whether via blackmail by the Pakistani government or due to physical damage by insurgents.
Consider the Russia-Europe scenario. The Europeans are so concerned about Russian energy clout (the European Union gets 25% of its gas from Gazprom) that they have proposed several alternatives—for instance, the Nabucco pipeline to transport Central Asian gas through Georgia and Turkey to Austria, avoiding Russian supplies and territory altogether.
India, looking to make itself energy independent, could ironically become hostage to others’ whims
To counter this, the Russians have proposed the North Stream and South Stream pipelines that in turn bypass Ukraine. This has split the Europeans: Germany prefers the North Stream; Italy and Greece prefer the South Stream.
Such energy dependence can have wider ramifications. It is quite possible that Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August was a warning to the Europeans and Americans, who, in the Russian view, are getting rather too friendly with Georgia. In 2007, Georgia completed a section of a pipeline that passes from Baku in Azerbaijan to Erzurum in Turkey. This will connect to the Nabucco line, if it is ever completed. But Russia’s counter-proposal of the South Stream, to terminate at the same Austrian distribution point as Nabucco, has caused the Europeans to rethink.
The Georgian invasion may have been part of Russia’s strategy to lock in its customers by offering an unattractive choice: If they go with the Georgian option, the Russians could disrupt that pipeline at will, as it runs close to Russian-dominated South Ossetia in Georgia. A number of European countries are dependent on Russian gas (100% in the case of Bulgaria, Finland, Lithuania and Slovakia; at least 60% in the case of Greece, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland; and at least 40% in the case of Germany), and switching costs are high. Their bargaining power as customers is low.
The Russians have also induced their customers to build “co-specialized assets”—large capital investments that can only be used specifically with their product. The goal, from the point of view of a supplier, is to make their offering so attractive that their customers should be willing to put in large amounts of money to build infrastructure for that product, and only that product; the supplier also invests, and it is a win-win for both. Until, that is, the supplier shows its teeth. Technological changes may render co-specialized assets obsolete or non-optimal, thereby becoming a burden.
Russia has also created, in effect, a cartel of gas-exporting countries from Central Asia to West Asia to North Africa. In the 1970s, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) similarly held the world to ransom. By becoming a monopoly, Opec was able to increase prices by an order of magnitude, bring on the infamous “oil shock”, and transfer trillions of dollars from the rest of the world to themselves. We don’t want a repeat of that with Russia, or other gas moguls.
Clearly, overland pipelines create insecurity. Therefore, India must weigh the alternatives. What if, for instance, it used an offshore pipeline from Iran that skirted Pakistan’s coast and landed in Gujarat, or it used liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped from Central Asia? The cost of building and maintaining an offshore pipeline is significantly greater than that of an overland pipeline, but the latter’s risk premium may justify the increased cost.
Better yet, India should consider new technologies. LNG terminals and refrigerated LNG tankers, for example, do not depend on geography. LNG terminals can accept LNG ships from anywhere. In other words, switching costs are minimized, and there is no threat of disruption by a transit nation. The cost of every stage in the LNG value chain has dropped so much in the last decade that its end-user price is now comparable with that of gas piped overland.
Nations can wield tremendous power by leveraging their natural resources. India, looking to make itself energy independent, would do well to imbibe these lessons. Otherwise, ironically, it will become even more of a hostage to others’ whims.
Rajeev Srinivasan is a management consultant concentrating on energy and strategy issues. Comments are welcome at theirview@livemint.com
Cops warns against V-Day 'troubles'
BANGALORE: In the wake of right wing Sri Ram Sena's threat to marry off couples found celebrating Valentine's Day, the City Police today warned such outfits against indulging in any illegal activities on the day.
Without directly naming the Sena, Bangalore Police Commissioner Shankar Bidari said certain organisations and individuals have threatened to forcibly prevent persons from observing Valentine's Day as they consider it not consistent with Indian culture.
"This is not correct and such acts will amount to an offence under Section 153(A) of the Indian Penal Code," he said. "If they indulge in such illegal acts, they will invite stringent legal action," he added.
He said organisations and individuals who have issued such threats would be dealt with firmly according to the provisions of the law of the land.
Bidari said observance of Valentine's Day is in accordance with the spirit of the Constitution and society.
He said necessary protection would be given to bars, pubs, restaurants and shops selling Valentine's Day cards if their owners apprehend any obstruction or danger to their business from individuals or groups on February 14.
Without directly naming the Sena, Bangalore Police Commissioner Shankar Bidari said certain organisations and individuals have threatened to forcibly prevent persons from observing Valentine's Day as they consider it not consistent with Indian culture.
"This is not correct and such acts will amount to an offence under Section 153(A) of the Indian Penal Code," he said. "If they indulge in such illegal acts, they will invite stringent legal action," he added.
He said organisations and individuals who have issued such threats would be dealt with firmly according to the provisions of the law of the land.
Bidari said observance of Valentine's Day is in accordance with the spirit of the Constitution and society.
He said necessary protection would be given to bars, pubs, restaurants and shops selling Valentine's Day cards if their owners apprehend any obstruction or danger to their business from individuals or groups on February 14.
Gorkhaland, related problems due to lack of development: Patkar
Siliguri, Feb 8 Social activist Medha Patkar Sunday said that the Gorkhaland agitation and recent disturbances in northern West Bengal were a result of years of neglect and lack of development in the region.
“These kinds of happenings are offshoots of years of deprivation and lack of development,” Patkar said at a mass convention on communal harmony here.
“But this is not a one-off case. We are seeing similar moments in various parts of the country,” she said. Urging the authorities to identify and redress the real issues for a long-term solution to the problems in the northern part of the state, Patkar said: “What is worrisome is that some political organisations use such incidents to further their vested interests. They also try to trigger ethnic riots, thus complicating the situation”.
CPI (M) does not rule out supporting a Govt. including Congress
New Delhi, Feb. 8 : The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has not ruled out the possibility of supporting a government with Congress party as its part at the centre after Lok Sabha elections, though such a situation was improbable.
In an interview to a news channel, CPI (M) General Secretary Prakash Karat said..., "That is our first priority. At no cost will we support a Congress-led government. We will work for a secular government, but what shape it takes I can''t say till after the elections. I can''t rule it out, but it seems unlikely. I can''t say that now what''s going to happen. It depends on the situation. I am not very clear about what is going to happen (after Lok Sabha polls)."
Asked whether the Left would support a Congress government which is not led by Manmohan Singh, he said "we have never had problems working with any leader, a Minister or the Prime Minister". It was purely a question of policies they pursued.
Asked if he felt "betrayed" by Dr. Singh , the CPI(M) leader said he was "clear about what he wanted to do. So there is no question of being betrayed. Our problem was that we could not agree with the Congress government going ahead with a strategic alliance with the US."
Stating that the 2004 post-poll scenario, in which Congress was leading, might not be repeated this time, Karat said: "We will be coming together with parties with whom we necessarily do not have full agreement ideologically or politically."
Asked whether the Left would compromise on their anti- communal ideal if they joined hands with parties close to BJP, Karat said there were several parties which were close to the Congress or the BJP, but not with the Left. "If we succeed in bringing them on to our platform, I think it is good enough."
On charges of corruption against J Jayalalitha and Mayawati, with whom the Left wanted to align, Karat said while fighting corruption has to be on Left agenda, "you can''t make corruption an issue for deciding the political programme and understanding between political parties. Then we can''t have an understanding with any political party."
The CPI(M) leader said the Left parties were forging alliances with major regional and secular parties in each state which have substantial mass base.
Jayalalitha had "asked us eight months earlier, even before withdrawing support to the UPA government that they would like to have an understanding with us," he said.
Observing that the United Front, NDA and UPA coalitions were forged just before or after elections, Karat said "by 2009 elections, some alignments will develop, a third alternative will emerge. It will not just be the TDP or AIADMK, others will join us in the third front."
About BSP supremo Ms. Mayawati, Karat said he was "constantly in touch with her. We have decided that if we put our best foot forward and win sufficient seats, other secular parties will come along with us. This is what the Left and the BSP want."
In an interview to a news channel, CPI (M) General Secretary Prakash Karat said..., "That is our first priority. At no cost will we support a Congress-led government. We will work for a secular government, but what shape it takes I can''t say till after the elections. I can''t rule it out, but it seems unlikely. I can''t say that now what''s going to happen. It depends on the situation. I am not very clear about what is going to happen (after Lok Sabha polls)."
Asked whether the Left would support a Congress government which is not led by Manmohan Singh, he said "we have never had problems working with any leader, a Minister or the Prime Minister". It was purely a question of policies they pursued.
Asked if he felt "betrayed" by Dr. Singh , the CPI(M) leader said he was "clear about what he wanted to do. So there is no question of being betrayed. Our problem was that we could not agree with the Congress government going ahead with a strategic alliance with the US."
Stating that the 2004 post-poll scenario, in which Congress was leading, might not be repeated this time, Karat said: "We will be coming together with parties with whom we necessarily do not have full agreement ideologically or politically."
Asked whether the Left would compromise on their anti- communal ideal if they joined hands with parties close to BJP, Karat said there were several parties which were close to the Congress or the BJP, but not with the Left. "If we succeed in bringing them on to our platform, I think it is good enough."
On charges of corruption against J Jayalalitha and Mayawati, with whom the Left wanted to align, Karat said while fighting corruption has to be on Left agenda, "you can''t make corruption an issue for deciding the political programme and understanding between political parties. Then we can''t have an understanding with any political party."
The CPI(M) leader said the Left parties were forging alliances with major regional and secular parties in each state which have substantial mass base.
Jayalalitha had "asked us eight months earlier, even before withdrawing support to the UPA government that they would like to have an understanding with us," he said.
Observing that the United Front, NDA and UPA coalitions were forged just before or after elections, Karat said "by 2009 elections, some alignments will develop, a third alternative will emerge. It will not just be the TDP or AIADMK, others will join us in the third front."
About BSP supremo Ms. Mayawati, Karat said he was "constantly in touch with her. We have decided that if we put our best foot forward and win sufficient seats, other secular parties will come along with us. This is what the Left and the BSP want."
Negotiations for Beckham move to AC Milan heat up
Rome - English veteran David Beckham remained firmly in the news Sunday after playing another convincing game with AC Milan and openly declaring his desire to play in Italy rather than returning to Los Angeles Galaxy.
Beckham, 33, has been at the Devils since late December on a loan deal set to expire on March 8, when he is due to rejoin the California club for the start of the US Major League Soccer (MLS).
On Saturday, LA Galaxy rejected AC Milan's bid to sign Beckham on a permanent deal.
Tim Leiweke, chief executive of Galaxy owners AEG, told the LA Times: "We received an offer. It was rejected. We need to end the circus and the zoo."
However, Beckham has said he would now like to remain in Italy.
"I have discovered a great feeling with the environment (at Milan) and I'd like to play in Italy," Beckham said before his side were held to a 1-1 home draw with Reggina late Saturday.
"Milan are crucial to keep playing at this level and be able to play with England."
Beckham's form for AC Milan has now earned him a recall to the England squad by manager Fabio Capello for the friendly international against Spain on Wednesday.
His two goals in six Serie A games and his perfect integration in the team have convinced both him and Milan that the loan agreement with LA Galaxy be switched to full ownership.
Negotiations that began last week, however, seemed to leave Milan few chances to retain the midfielder as their maximum offer of 5 million euros (6.4 million dollars) appeared to be about a fourth of what Galaxy asked.
While Leiweke reiterated Galaxy's desire to retain the midfielder, he did not rule out a compromise with the Serie A club.
"Beckham is an important element in our team and we want him back," he said.
"Of course, if David wants to end the season at Milan and Milan decide to compensate Galaxy for the loss, then we'll consider the matter."
Beckham, 33, has been at the Devils since late December on a loan deal set to expire on March 8, when he is due to rejoin the California club for the start of the US Major League Soccer (MLS).
On Saturday, LA Galaxy rejected AC Milan's bid to sign Beckham on a permanent deal.
Tim Leiweke, chief executive of Galaxy owners AEG, told the LA Times: "We received an offer. It was rejected. We need to end the circus and the zoo."
However, Beckham has said he would now like to remain in Italy.
"I have discovered a great feeling with the environment (at Milan) and I'd like to play in Italy," Beckham said before his side were held to a 1-1 home draw with Reggina late Saturday.
"Milan are crucial to keep playing at this level and be able to play with England."
Beckham's form for AC Milan has now earned him a recall to the England squad by manager Fabio Capello for the friendly international against Spain on Wednesday.
His two goals in six Serie A games and his perfect integration in the team have convinced both him and Milan that the loan agreement with LA Galaxy be switched to full ownership.
Negotiations that began last week, however, seemed to leave Milan few chances to retain the midfielder as their maximum offer of 5 million euros (6.4 million dollars) appeared to be about a fourth of what Galaxy asked.
While Leiweke reiterated Galaxy's desire to retain the midfielder, he did not rule out a compromise with the Serie A club.
"Beckham is an important element in our team and we want him back," he said.
"Of course, if David wants to end the season at Milan and Milan decide to compensate Galaxy for the loss, then we'll consider the matter."
China fights drought with chemical cloud-seeding
Beijing, Feb 08: Parts of China's parched north got light rain after authorities fired shells loaded with cloud-seeding chemicals into the sky, but there was no end in sight for its worst drought in five decades, the government said on Sunday.
Beijing has declared an emergency across China's north, where 4.4 million people lack adequate drinking water and winter wheat crops are withering.
"The drought situation will not be eased in the near future," said a national weather bureau statement.
Some areas got a sprinkling of rain and sleet Saturday after clouds were hit with 2,392 rockets and 409 cannon shells loaded with chemicals, the weather bureau said. It said clouds were thin and moving out of the region, making conditions poor for more rainmaking.
Rainfall in northern and central China is 50 percent to 80 percent below normal, according to the Flood Control and Drought Relief Office. The official Xinhua News Agency said the drought that started in November threatens up to half the wheat crop in eight provinces — Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and Gansu.
On Saturday, one county in Shaanxi got 0.9 inches (23 millimetres) of precipitation, the weather bureau said. Other areas received less than 0.2 inches (5 millimetres).
The state television midday news Sunday showed farmers with parched wheat seedlings that were barely ankle-high.
Beijing has promised CNY 86.7 billion (USD 12.6 billion) in aid to struggling farmers. That will add to the strain on government finances as it carries out a multibillion-dollar stimulus package to boost slowing economic growth.
The Agriculture Ministry said the drought is to blame for an outbreak of a fungal disease called stripe rust that attacks wheat. It said the disease can cut output by up to 40 percent.
Drinking water is being trucked to villagers and the government is launching a massive irrigation effort with water from rivers and wells.
Water Resources Minister Chen Lei said water levels
in the Yellow River, a key source for farms and a string of cities, are down 20 percent to 40 percent, the Communist Party newspaper People's Daily reported.
Across eight provinces, irrigation has brought water to about half the 11 million hectares (26.5 million acres) of drought-affected wheat crops, the Agriculture Ministry said Sunday on its Web site.
Beijing has declared an emergency across China's north, where 4.4 million people lack adequate drinking water and winter wheat crops are withering.
"The drought situation will not be eased in the near future," said a national weather bureau statement.
Some areas got a sprinkling of rain and sleet Saturday after clouds were hit with 2,392 rockets and 409 cannon shells loaded with chemicals, the weather bureau said. It said clouds were thin and moving out of the region, making conditions poor for more rainmaking.
Rainfall in northern and central China is 50 percent to 80 percent below normal, according to the Flood Control and Drought Relief Office. The official Xinhua News Agency said the drought that started in November threatens up to half the wheat crop in eight provinces — Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and Gansu.
On Saturday, one county in Shaanxi got 0.9 inches (23 millimetres) of precipitation, the weather bureau said. Other areas received less than 0.2 inches (5 millimetres).
The state television midday news Sunday showed farmers with parched wheat seedlings that were barely ankle-high.
Beijing has promised CNY 86.7 billion (USD 12.6 billion) in aid to struggling farmers. That will add to the strain on government finances as it carries out a multibillion-dollar stimulus package to boost slowing economic growth.
The Agriculture Ministry said the drought is to blame for an outbreak of a fungal disease called stripe rust that attacks wheat. It said the disease can cut output by up to 40 percent.
Drinking water is being trucked to villagers and the government is launching a massive irrigation effort with water from rivers and wells.
Water Resources Minister Chen Lei said water levels
in the Yellow River, a key source for farms and a string of cities, are down 20 percent to 40 percent, the Communist Party newspaper People's Daily reported.
Across eight provinces, irrigation has brought water to about half the 11 million hectares (26.5 million acres) of drought-affected wheat crops, the Agriculture Ministry said Sunday on its Web site.
Computer virus grounds French fighter planes
London, Feb 08: A virus attack on French military computers has grounded the nation's naval fighter planes after pilots failed to download their flight plans, media reports in France said.
According to the 'Liberation' newspaper, the virus infected the Navy's flight databases and Rafale aircraft were "nailed to the ground" on January 15 and 16 because they were unable to "download their flight plans".
Though Microsoft had warned several months beforehand that the "Conficker" virus, transmitted through Windows, was attacking computers, media reports claimed the French military ignored the warning and failed to take the necessary measures, British newspaper 'The Sunday Telegraph' reported.
However, the French Navy has admitted that during the time it took to eradicate the virus, it had to return to more traditional forms of communication -- telephone, fax and post.
"It affected exchanges of information but no information was lost. It was a security problem we had already simulated. We cut the communication links that could have transmitted the virus and 99 per cent of the network is safe," Navy spokesman Jérome Erulin told 'Ouest France' newspaper.
In fact, the virus attacked the non-secured internal French navy network called Intramar and was detected on January 21. The whole network was affected and military staff were instructed not to start their computers.
According to the 'Liberation', two days later the chiefs of staff decided to isolate Intramar from military's other computer systems, but certain computers at Villacoublay air base and in the 8th Transmissions Regiment were infected.
However, naval officials said that the "infection" was probably due more to negligence than a deliberate attempt to compromise French national security. "The computer virus problem had no effect on availability of our forces."
According to the 'Liberation' newspaper, the virus infected the Navy's flight databases and Rafale aircraft were "nailed to the ground" on January 15 and 16 because they were unable to "download their flight plans".
Though Microsoft had warned several months beforehand that the "Conficker" virus, transmitted through Windows, was attacking computers, media reports claimed the French military ignored the warning and failed to take the necessary measures, British newspaper 'The Sunday Telegraph' reported.
However, the French Navy has admitted that during the time it took to eradicate the virus, it had to return to more traditional forms of communication -- telephone, fax and post.
"It affected exchanges of information but no information was lost. It was a security problem we had already simulated. We cut the communication links that could have transmitted the virus and 99 per cent of the network is safe," Navy spokesman Jérome Erulin told 'Ouest France' newspaper.
In fact, the virus attacked the non-secured internal French navy network called Intramar and was detected on January 21. The whole network was affected and military staff were instructed not to start their computers.
According to the 'Liberation', two days later the chiefs of staff decided to isolate Intramar from military's other computer systems, but certain computers at Villacoublay air base and in the 8th Transmissions Regiment were infected.
However, naval officials said that the "infection" was probably due more to negligence than a deliberate attempt to compromise French national security. "The computer virus problem had no effect on availability of our forces."
Hollywood screenwriters eyeing Palin’s story
New York, Feb 8: Alaska Governor might have failed in her Vice Presidential bid, some Hollywood scriptwriters are so fascinated by her that they are planning films on her.
It so emerged when screenwriters nominated for awards this year were asked to choose the 2008 even they would most like to turn into a screenplay.
“I'm always down for politics as humour. I'm also interested in great characters,” the New York Post quoted ‘Milk’ scriptwriter Dustin Lance Black as telling Variety magazine.
Tom McCarthy, who penned the script for ‘The Visitor’, is also planning to write a screenplay about hockey-playing hunk Levi Johnston, who knocked up Palin's daughter Bristol.
"This young man gets his girlfriend pregnant and ends up on the Republican platform at the National Convention. This 17-year-old kid from Alaska, standing on the stage - there's a dark comedy in there somewhere. He was like a deer in the headlights," McCarthy said.
It so emerged when screenwriters nominated for awards this year were asked to choose the 2008 even they would most like to turn into a screenplay.
“I'm always down for politics as humour. I'm also interested in great characters,” the New York Post quoted ‘Milk’ scriptwriter Dustin Lance Black as telling Variety magazine.
Tom McCarthy, who penned the script for ‘The Visitor’, is also planning to write a screenplay about hockey-playing hunk Levi Johnston, who knocked up Palin's daughter Bristol.
"This young man gets his girlfriend pregnant and ends up on the Republican platform at the National Convention. This 17-year-old kid from Alaska, standing on the stage - there's a dark comedy in there somewhere. He was like a deer in the headlights," McCarthy said.
Limba set for second innings
KOLKATA: Arguably the only iconic figure in Indian archery, Limba Ram, is set to begin a second innings as the National coach.
The 38-year-old chief coach of Rajasthan has been given the onerous task of guiding India’s fortunes in the Commonwealth Games Delhi 2010 and the diminutive tribal has accepted the challenge with both hands.
In the city to oversee the ongoing compound bow preparatory camp, Limba said he was honoured by the appointment. He inked a one-year contract with the sports ministry on Wednesday before coming here.
Limba felt that the Indian archers had it in them to excel at international level. “Archery is an ancient Indian sport. It is being practiced in many forms especially in tribal belts and most of our archers are from those regions. They need to be groomed to take on the best in the world,” he said.
“My immediate task is to mould the team to win medals at the Commonwealth Games at Delhi,” he said. — Special Correspondent
The 38-year-old chief coach of Rajasthan has been given the onerous task of guiding India’s fortunes in the Commonwealth Games Delhi 2010 and the diminutive tribal has accepted the challenge with both hands.
In the city to oversee the ongoing compound bow preparatory camp, Limba said he was honoured by the appointment. He inked a one-year contract with the sports ministry on Wednesday before coming here.
Limba felt that the Indian archers had it in them to excel at international level. “Archery is an ancient Indian sport. It is being practiced in many forms especially in tribal belts and most of our archers are from those regions. They need to be groomed to take on the best in the world,” he said.
“My immediate task is to mould the team to win medals at the Commonwealth Games at Delhi,” he said. — Special Correspondent
SCVI in International Health Expo 09
Chandigarh, February 7 : The Stem Cell Voice of India (SCVI), an organization working towards the promotion of stem cell technology in treating various degenerative diseases in the country educated all the sects of the society by presenting different aspects of stem cell technology in the International Health Expo.
IHEC09 was organized in Chandigarh from February 6 to 9. This expo was a comprehensive health care event encompassing preventive, promotive, curative and rehabilitative health care aspects. The four day long event had Medical Fraternity, Pharmaceutical delegates from the renowned organizations like Fortis, Apollo, Alchemist, KSI Medical and PGIMER among others.
IHEC09 was inaugurated by Dr. Raj Bahadur, Director Govt. Medical College & Hospital, Chandigarh. Among other renowned personalities in the event were Dr. Yash Sharma, President, and Indian Medical Association.
SCVI exhibited on the occasion, apart from arranging lecture for educating people about various aspects of stem cell technology.Dr. Raj Bahadur, Director of Govt. Medical College, Chandigarh, members & supporter of SCVI represented Stem cell voice of India by deliberating on the Role of Stem Cells: present status.
Life cell International in association with SCVI highlighted Cord blood stem cell banking along with the menstrual blood banking. Life cell International is the first to open the Menstrual Blood Banking in India.
Over the period of four days, the Expo featured concurrent seminars and conferences on topics ranging from Medical Tourism, Healthy living, Healthcare challenges and Hospital management besides current health issues.IHEC09 proved to be a stepping stone for SCVI to achieve its aim of serving the mankind by improving the quality of life.
IHEC09 was organized in Chandigarh from February 6 to 9. This expo was a comprehensive health care event encompassing preventive, promotive, curative and rehabilitative health care aspects. The four day long event had Medical Fraternity, Pharmaceutical delegates from the renowned organizations like Fortis, Apollo, Alchemist, KSI Medical and PGIMER among others.
IHEC09 was inaugurated by Dr. Raj Bahadur, Director Govt. Medical College & Hospital, Chandigarh. Among other renowned personalities in the event were Dr. Yash Sharma, President, and Indian Medical Association.
SCVI exhibited on the occasion, apart from arranging lecture for educating people about various aspects of stem cell technology.Dr. Raj Bahadur, Director of Govt. Medical College, Chandigarh, members & supporter of SCVI represented Stem cell voice of India by deliberating on the Role of Stem Cells: present status.
Life cell International in association with SCVI highlighted Cord blood stem cell banking along with the menstrual blood banking. Life cell International is the first to open the Menstrual Blood Banking in India.
Over the period of four days, the Expo featured concurrent seminars and conferences on topics ranging from Medical Tourism, Healthy living, Healthcare challenges and Hospital management besides current health issues.IHEC09 proved to be a stepping stone for SCVI to achieve its aim of serving the mankind by improving the quality of life.
Bangladesh’s India ‘Problem’ and Mashrafe-Juhi-Pranab update
I called up a relative today and her first response on political matters highlighted the discussion of the hour. Referring to the much discussed transit deal, she said: ‘As predicted our country is getting sold to India’. This is an often used rhetoric that is well past its expiry date. However, this still merits a responsible response. Translation: Bangladesh’s India strategy deserves a strong discussion not just in the policy circle but among the general populace as well. Whatever position this government is taking concerning India, they need to do a far better job in convincing the public that it is for their best interst. It has to go beyond producing the text of old treaties. It needs to communicate more effectively by showing numbers, the benefits, the threats and treat us like adults and show real dinbodol (change) in terms of transparency.
Before we get into what the future holds, let’s look at what the average Bangladeshis think of India?
Here is Tahmima Anam’s take on what Bangladeshis think of India..on the eve of independence, it seemed the road was gilded for a great love-affair between Bangladesh and India. This romance was even adumbrated by our geography: India surrounds Bangladesh on three sides, a great bear-hug of a border. But in the decades since Bangladesh’s independence, the affair has gone sour.Farakka ravaged and soured the feelings of an entire generation in Bangladesh on India. While India played the mean spirited big brother, the military generals found an effective, political card in bashing India. In the nineties, it was the Babri Mosque riot and in 2002, it was the Gujarat riot that gave a glimpse to us of the state of minority Muslims in India. The net result: A feeling of distrust among the Bangladeshis about India. ”India likes to bully its neighboring countries”, “India kills our innoncent villagers in the borders”, “India blames Bangladesh for terrorism at every opportunity it gets”. ”India tries to interfere in our politics at every opportunity it gets”. Now that India wants transit through our country, what are they REALLY up to? Surely, they would just look into their interest. That’s what happens in any negotiation. But the question is can Bangladesh stand her ground in the negotiating table to protect its own interest? Before her government can do that, they need to create a comprehesive strategy surrounding bergaining with India.
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There is yet to be an implemented economic treaty that would allow our products to cross the border into India without heavy tariffs. This trade imbalance only serves to reinforce the feeling that we live in the shadow of a bully.
So the big question is if 2009 going to be a new era for a fairer India-Bangladesh relation? IHT chimes in calling India’s new found status as an upcoming super power as element that will make them behave.
At the broadest level, there is a growing recognition in India’s leadership that a rising India needs to foster cooperation with its neighbors, and not to view their weaknesses as its advantage.Given that India will want to portray itself as a benign neighbour, why should Bangladesh have a solid economic strategy for India? Ifty Islam, former Macro Economic strategist at the CitiBank and the current head of AT Capital, thinks people in Bangladesh need to start looking at India as an opportunity and not a threat.
In the long run, India’s relationship with its eastern neighbor of 150 million people may become as important as the relationship with Pakistan, not least because Bangladesh is crucial to resolving the isolation and insurgencies in India’s seven North-East states.
More immediately, if India cannot have cooperative relations with a moderate, secular and democratic Muslim country with which it has no insoluble conflicts of interest, it has scant hope for coexistence with Pakistan or wider cooperation in a South Asia notorious for its lack of economic integration.
Given its growing global stature, India should seek to be a benign rather than overbearing regional leader, especially since security infections can spread from unstable and unhappy neighbors into India.
At the beginning of October 2008, I participated in an Indian Private Equity seminar in Mumbai. I was surprised at the lack of awareness of recent trends in the Bangladesh economy among many of the 300 attendees I had a chance to speak to. Many were focused on “Incredible India” companies buying up assets in Europe and the US. Bangladesh appeared an after-thought.Ifty Islam’s piece is worth a read and merits further discussion. His key points for the India strategy is three folds.
However, attitudes are changing and I was pleasantly surprised to receive a call from a journalist from Forbes India last week. They are launching their inaugural issue in March and want to feature an article on India-Bangladesh economic relations.
1. Look at India as a potential FDI resource as FDI from the West dries up
2. Set up Bangladesh as a revenue generating regional transport hub through transit and deep sea port
3. Just as Vietnam has positioned itself as China+1, position Bangladesh as India+1 ( alternative manufacturing hub for global companies and investors who already have over-reliance on India)
In a post credit crunch battered global economy, every one is going back to the drawing board. Bangladesh is no exception either. Surely time has come now to proactively and aggressively manage the relationship to our benefit with the big guy round the corner. While Awami League is using its recently earned political capital on this political risky deal, it needs to extract a heavier concession from India and convince the public that it is in our best economic interest. It also needs to take into account that it is dealing with an almost lame duck government. By all indications, BJP is likely to come back to power in the centre in two months. If history is any guide, a BJP government will continuously try to shore up its base by allienting its Muslim majority neighboring countries. Would it have been not wise to wait until the new government had taken power so that we had better control in the negotiating table? What if BJP does not honour the committment made by the Congress government? In its first 100 days of power, when the government is expected to pass bills on its campaign promises, why is AL focusing on issues that got little/if any focus during the campaigns?
Lots to think about. But in the next few days, as Pronob Dada visits Bangladesh, this issue is surely going to dominate the airwaves. Pitch in your thoughts. Is it time to revise our India strategy? If so, how?
As I wrap up this piece, I find the news of Mashrafee being roped into the Indian Premier League at an astonishing amount of 600 thousand dollars. Now that’s an FDI we can all believe in! But hear what Juhi has Chawla has to say about this most overpriced purchase of the year.
25 slum kids taken ill in Mohali village
Mohali , Feb 7 25 children of brick kiln workers were taken ill after they consumed seeds of Jatropha plant, from which bio-diesel is extracted, at Parol village here.
While 24 children in the age group of 3-13 years were brought to Mohali Civil Hospital after they started vomitting blood, another child was shifted to GMSH-16 in Chandigarh, Mohali Civil Hospital Senior Medical Officer (SMO) incharge H S Sarang told PTI.
The condition of children admitted at the hospital here was stable but were under observation.
The children were attending class at an anganwari when they fell ill, the SMO said.
The children said that they ate seeds of the Jatropha plant as they were hungry.
But soon after, they started vomitting and complained of abdominal pain, nausea and uneasiness, the SMO said.
While 24 children in the age group of 3-13 years were brought to Mohali Civil Hospital after they started vomitting blood, another child was shifted to GMSH-16 in Chandigarh, Mohali Civil Hospital Senior Medical Officer (SMO) incharge H S Sarang told PTI.
The condition of children admitted at the hospital here was stable but were under observation.
The children were attending class at an anganwari when they fell ill, the SMO said.
The children said that they ate seeds of the Jatropha plant as they were hungry.
But soon after, they started vomitting and complained of abdominal pain, nausea and uneasiness, the SMO said.
Myanmar: If UN wants stability, drop sanctions
YANGON, Myanmar -A leader of Myanmar's military regime gave the U.N.'s visiting envoy a cold reception Tuesday, telling him the world body should lift economic sanctions and visa bans if it wants to see political stability, state television reported.
Special envoy Ibrahim Gambari met with Prime Minister Gen. Thein Sein before ending his four-day visit with no public comment — and no sign of progress on promoting democracy and political reconciliation.
Myanmar's military, which has ruled the country since 1962,when it was known as Burma, tolerates virtually no dissent.
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Western nations, including the United States, impose economic and political sanctions on Myanmar because of its poor human rights record and failure to restore democracy.
Gambari reportedly asked Thein Sein to release more political prisoners, to consider a dialogue with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and to make the military-guided political process inclusive for all.
"If the U.N. wants to see economic development and political stability, the U.N. should first try to remove economic sanctions and visa bans," was the prime minister's response, according to state television reported.
Thein Sein said economic sanctions amount to human rights violations, affecting health, economic and social conditions.
On Monday, Gambari met with Suu Kyi, a minor breakthrough because she had refused to see him on his previous visit in August last year. She has expressed disappointment with the U.N.'s failure to persuade the ruling junta to give up its monopoly on power.
Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest, has been detained more than 13 of the past 19 years.
Gambari did not meet with junta chief Senior Gen. Than Shwe during this week's visit, as he did on his previous three trips.
The United Nations largely failed to nudge the military regime toward talks with the opposition, hoping the top generals would respond to international pressure to embrace national reconciliation following its violent suppression of protests in 2007.
Human rights groups say Myanmar now holds more than 2,100 political prisoners, up sharply from nearly 1,200 before the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in 2007.
Myanmar's current military leadership came to power in 1988 after crushing a nationwide pro-democracy movement. It held elections in 1990 but refused to honor the results after Suu Kyi's party won a landslide victory.
4 oil executives abducted
Guwahati: Suspected militants on Thursday abducted four senior executives of Indian Oiltanking Limited (IOTL) in southern Assam’s North Cachar Hills district.
The IOTLis a joint venture between the Indian Oil Corporation Limited and Oiltanking GmbH of Germany.
Principal Secretary, Home, Subhash Das, told The Hindu that suspected militants abducted four executives — Suresh Kumar, B. Kumar, Mahendar and Sadrakhm — from Langting, while they were carrying out seismic survey in search of oil.
No outfit has claimed responsibility for the abduction. The police launched an operation on Friday morning to trace them.
The IOTLis a joint venture between the Indian Oil Corporation Limited and Oiltanking GmbH of Germany.
Principal Secretary, Home, Subhash Das, told The Hindu that suspected militants abducted four executives — Suresh Kumar, B. Kumar, Mahendar and Sadrakhm — from Langting, while they were carrying out seismic survey in search of oil.
No outfit has claimed responsibility for the abduction. The police launched an operation on Friday morning to trace them.
“Twilight” director to pen book on film’s making
The director of the movie “Twilight”, Catherine Hardwicke, has decided to pen a book detailing the makings of the movie.
The book, titled “Twilight: Director’s Notebook”, will be released by Little, Brown Books for Young Readers, the division of Hachette Book Group on March 17, reports the China Daily.
Publishing of the book has been timed to coincide with the hype surrounding the vampire romance movie as its DVD comes out on March 21.
The book reveals details about casting, location scouting, wardrobe and Hardwicke’s favourite scenes, and it also has behind-the-scenes photos and storyboard sketches.
It has also been designed to replicate the director’s own personal notebook that she had kept on set.
The book, titled “Twilight: Director’s Notebook”, will be released by Little, Brown Books for Young Readers, the division of Hachette Book Group on March 17, reports the China Daily.
Publishing of the book has been timed to coincide with the hype surrounding the vampire romance movie as its DVD comes out on March 21.
The book reveals details about casting, location scouting, wardrobe and Hardwicke’s favourite scenes, and it also has behind-the-scenes photos and storyboard sketches.
It has also been designed to replicate the director’s own personal notebook that she had kept on set.
Fire devastates 50 houses
Dimapur, February 7 (MExN): Around 50 houses were devastated in a major fire that broke out at Naharbari village at around 12:50 pm this afternoon.
Most of the houses belonged to Muslim migrant workers. However the timely intervention of the AR jawans, Fire Brigade personnel, police, IRB jawans and the villagers, prevented the fire from spreading. According to police, the fire broke out by accident and there was no casualty.
Meanwhile, the chairperson of the Naharbari Village Council, Tokheli Kikon, who had rushed to the scene, expressed gratitude to the AR jawans, Fire Brigade personnel, the police and IRB jawans.
The pain and shame in denying a child toilet use
Dimapur | February 7 :The practice by school teachers to prevent or deny children from relieving themsleves during class hours is very common. Despite this common practice of forced retention of bodily waste, little has been done to address this issue let alone consider it a health hazard and a violation of a child’s right.
What most teachers think is that, requests for a relieve, is an excuse for the student to escape lessons or that it can wait till the period is over.
However, what most teachers fail to understand is that, each child’s excretory system functions in a different way from that of adults and as such making them “hold on” can cause multiple health and most importantly, psychological problems. Sadly, no voices have been raised against such mean practices by teachers.
Tolu, a four-year old student of lower kindergarten in a reputed school in Dimapur, recently came home after wetting his pants while in school. His teacher had refused to let him use the toilet during class hour. Unable to control his urge to urinate, Tolu wet his pants leaving him embarrassed in front of his classmates.
Similarly, eight year old Kinvi’s mother speaks about her son’s traumatic “hold on” moment in school a few years ago. She says he passed “stool” in his pants after his class teacher prevented him from using the toilet.
Kinvi’s mother recollects the problems she took to bring back her son home. “He couldn’t sit in the auto nor could he walk,” she says. To add to his already awkward amd embarrassing situation, his brothers kept poking fun at him which ended in a fist fight in their sitting-room.
While in some cases children voluntarily “hold on” till recess, the underlying fact is that most children realise they will in any case not be allowed to excuse themselves.
Dr. G Zhimomi, a paediatrician, explains that the direct consequence of denying children the right to use the toilet is ‘Urinary Tract Infection’, which if neglected, could have long-term health implications. This also increases the risk of kidney infection.
“Up to a certain age, the ability to control urination is very less,” he explains and strictly discourages teachers not to suppress children’s urge to relieve themselves. Dr. Zhimomi says that it could also result in psychological problems like stress or shame and make the child docile.
Another consequence, other doctors warn, is that such practices of denying a child the use of toilet could also result in dehydration.
This generally happens when the child stops taking in enough fluids in order not to urinate often. Dehydration in turn leads to multiple health risks like constipation which can later develop into bile problems. Factors like weather and overactive bladders should not be ignored, Dr. Zhimomi says.
While it seems like an excuse for teachers, some parents are of the view that teachers, especially those teaching at primary level, should be “trained” to understand the physiology and psychology of children.
Also denying a child the right to remove bodily waste is directly harming the child thus suppressing their liberty of using the toilet. And as the world now considers the issue of “right to toilet” at the annual World Toilet Summit, allowing a child to use the toilet is not a big thing to ask for.
Morung Express News
What most teachers think is that, requests for a relieve, is an excuse for the student to escape lessons or that it can wait till the period is over.
However, what most teachers fail to understand is that, each child’s excretory system functions in a different way from that of adults and as such making them “hold on” can cause multiple health and most importantly, psychological problems. Sadly, no voices have been raised against such mean practices by teachers.
Tolu, a four-year old student of lower kindergarten in a reputed school in Dimapur, recently came home after wetting his pants while in school. His teacher had refused to let him use the toilet during class hour. Unable to control his urge to urinate, Tolu wet his pants leaving him embarrassed in front of his classmates.
Similarly, eight year old Kinvi’s mother speaks about her son’s traumatic “hold on” moment in school a few years ago. She says he passed “stool” in his pants after his class teacher prevented him from using the toilet.
Kinvi’s mother recollects the problems she took to bring back her son home. “He couldn’t sit in the auto nor could he walk,” she says. To add to his already awkward amd embarrassing situation, his brothers kept poking fun at him which ended in a fist fight in their sitting-room.
While in some cases children voluntarily “hold on” till recess, the underlying fact is that most children realise they will in any case not be allowed to excuse themselves.
Dr. G Zhimomi, a paediatrician, explains that the direct consequence of denying children the right to use the toilet is ‘Urinary Tract Infection’, which if neglected, could have long-term health implications. This also increases the risk of kidney infection.
“Up to a certain age, the ability to control urination is very less,” he explains and strictly discourages teachers not to suppress children’s urge to relieve themselves. Dr. Zhimomi says that it could also result in psychological problems like stress or shame and make the child docile.
Another consequence, other doctors warn, is that such practices of denying a child the use of toilet could also result in dehydration.
This generally happens when the child stops taking in enough fluids in order not to urinate often. Dehydration in turn leads to multiple health risks like constipation which can later develop into bile problems. Factors like weather and overactive bladders should not be ignored, Dr. Zhimomi says.
While it seems like an excuse for teachers, some parents are of the view that teachers, especially those teaching at primary level, should be “trained” to understand the physiology and psychology of children.
Also denying a child the right to remove bodily waste is directly harming the child thus suppressing their liberty of using the toilet. And as the world now considers the issue of “right to toilet” at the annual World Toilet Summit, allowing a child to use the toilet is not a big thing to ask for.
Morung Express News
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